Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 01-05-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o New! Omnistream o backup (launched AFTER the tour) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET) * backup is launched AFTER the Tour

Through the prior close... Yesterday's last half-hour bore not even a passing resemblance to the rest of the session. The rest of the session was about selling -- gapping down 35 points to 2000.00, extending down almost 20 points more to attack 1980.00, retracing a bounce from its 1997.00 peak down to 1984.00. Without any accumulation preceding it, yesterday's last half-hour surged suddenly, 25 points into and out of the close. A buy signal finally triggered as the surge passed through 1994.75, reaching 2008.00-2010.00 into and out of the close. Overnight action's new info... The late surge followed-through up to 2017.00. It was on the way to being retraced by midnight, and treading water into Europe's opens. That was the last straw, triggering a slide attacking 1992.00 and then hovering around yesterday's late 1994.75 buy signal up to 1998.00. If, then... 2008.00-2010.00 would have been sold if tested initially at yesterday's open. Testing it at yesterday's close was similar, especially when originating so late and without prior accumulation. Sliding overnight hasn't yet confirmed confirm this. The retracement must still reject yesterday's late 1994.75 buy signal, which is more difficult since it was so productive. Filling the gaps back to yesterday's 2005.00 and 2009.00 closes can't yet be dismissed in even the most bearish scenario -- similarly, their recovery could be bullish. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1989.00 would be unlikely to recover the 1993.50 bias-down target through 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2001.50 at 9:45 would be unlikely to trigger the 1999.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Post-open surge reverses down, to a degree. Recovering pre-open back to yesterday's 2009.50 futures close had already made the open less predictable. Its surge to 2012.50, if maintained through the opening 15 minutes, would have made the 2010.00 bias-up signal likely to trigger. But 2012.50 was being retested at 9:45 to avoid offering any predictability. Holding a test of the 2010.00 bias-up signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 1999.00 bias-down signal. Finally, predictability! Then it was met, neutralizing its attraction. Price suddenly reacted up sharply and substantially. Like yesterday's late surge, no accumulation preceded it. And like yesterday's late surge, it peaked upon testing 2009.50. So far. This is still a no-bias environment, and 2010.00 is still this morning's bias-up signal. Probing any higher would still be "no-bias trending" much before  the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30. Waiting patiently to probe above 2011.50 would be credible for extending the recovery. Back under 2005.50 would start to signal this morning's ranging was going to resolve down, probably targeting a probe under yesterday's lows.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2016.00  2007.00 ...would target  2022.00  2013.00 Bias-down: under  2008.00 1999.00 ...would target  2002.50  1993.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Another deep pullback is recovering. The open's probe above 2010.00 had reacted down. A recovery retested 2010.00. And now another recovery is testing 2010.00. All following yesterday's late surge to 2010.00. This current bounce to 2010.00 comes after holding a test of the afternoon's 1999.00 bias-down signal, which had narrowly avoided triggering. Actually, the bounce is 3 points above the bias-up signal. That's "no-bias trending," which requires being retraced, whether back down to the 2007.00 bias-up signal, or to the 1999.00 1:20 print. Already, 2007.00 is being retraced. Back under 2004.00 would make 1999.00's test likely -- and there's no bullish reason in this pattern to retest 1999.00. There's no requirement to test 1999.00, and back above 2010.75 would be credible for launching a rally leg.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2021.50 2012.50 ...would target  2027.00  2018.00 Bias-down: under  2010.50  2001.50 ...would target 2005.00  1996.00 Signal status:BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Ending the day with a whimper has made Wednesday likely to bang. Tuesday's last half-hour firmed gradually into the 2008.00-2010.00 resistance range, which is equilibrium. Including overnight action, trending in either direction is likely to be reversed once in the opposite direction. Completing that sequence would then become vulnerable to a more durable trend gaining traction. Wednesday's open is likely to gap, but not very far away from Tuesday's range -- still within its magnetic attraction to pull price back into and through Tuesday's range. Gapping much beyond Tuesday's range could break free of its orbit to simply trend in that direction. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.