Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday night's relentless trending up to 3328.75 greeted Friday's expiration open at 3325.25. Its gap up trended down through the open to 3320.00 to prevent extending the overnight trend. Often this setup will also reverse the trend, but Thursday's high was only attacked to within 1 point at the morning's later 3319.00 low. The likely probe of fresh highs that earned finally came during Friday's last 10 minutes, surging above the 3326.50 post-open high up to 3330.50. It was reversed back down to 3323.25 through expiration's rotation. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The long weekend is being exited much differently than it was entered. Although Sunday night's Globex open initially retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of Friday's post-close dip back up to 3328.50, flat-to-lower ranging suddenly collapsed 10 points down to 3318.50 into and out of Europe's opens. A bounce was consolidated through the morning, then Monday's last 90 minutes surged to within 1 point of recovering all of the overnight collapse. But the danger wasn't averted, only reset. Monday night's Globex open touched 3326.00 and then launched an even deeper collapse that has ranged choppily sideways through midnight and Europe's opens down to 3307.25. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) If last Tuesday and Wednesday were a multi-session range, then Thursday was a breakout and Friday was its confirmation. And that's bullish, eventually. But Friday's gap up didn't trend -- it only ranged sideways intraday until a very late probe of fresh highs, the session. Gap-and-go and non-trending confirmation sessions tend to be followed by a pullback day. Which Sunday and Monday night's collapses are producing. Thursday's confirmed breakout and Friday's new trend high close each also require an eventual higher close. Trend extremes don't occur into expirations or three-day holiday weekends, so this immediate pullback is likely only a temporary correction. The rally's next higher objective at 3355.00 remains outstanding, but the detour may first test 3308.00-3311.00 or 3295.00-3298.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3314.25 would be likely also to exceed the 3316.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3320.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 3322.75 bias-down signal.

Also, repeating the new chaRTroom link <click here>. The overnight collapse to 3307.25 had been recovered to test the 3316.25 bias-down target as resistance. It was thoroughly tested into the open, which then exploded higher to 3323.50. And that was a test of the 3322.75 bias-down signal, also as resistance. A dip to 3318.00 was recovered, but only back to resistance which triggered a clean bias-down. The signal extended down immediately to 3317.25. And although tested at the open, its 3316.25 bias-down target is in-play.

Seems pretty bearish, but now the 3322.75 bias-down signal is being retested. Which is an attractive short-entry, being resistance, and already having triggered. Cleanly.

But not rejecting its test soon could instead detour up to 3325.75 this morning, or higher later. Meanwhile, back under 3319.50 would get every benefit of the doubt for resuming the bias-down setup, its 3316.25 bias-down target, and potentially a retest of overnight lows and lower.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3331.25 3331.00 ...would target 3336.50 3336.25 Bias-down: under 3322.75 3322.75 ...would target 3317.50 3317.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Headline avoids no-bias. This morning's post-open ranging only attacked its 3316.25 bias-down target to within 1 point. And its bias-down environment didn't delay probing above its 3322.75 bias-down signal. The noon hour attacked 3330.00 and its exit was on-track to trigger bias-up. Then a CNN coronavirus headline triggered a drop that fulfilled the required retracement to 3322.75. It also triggered late bias-down, its 3317.50 bias-down target now being attacked to within 1 point. Sounds familiar. Bias-down probably wouldn't have triggered if not for the artificial catalyst of CNN's headline. Last night's coronavirus headline was retraced, both by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} and then entirely. Strong trending any deeper during the bias environment isn't likely, not without either bouncing up to 3326.00, or else breaking under 3317.50.

Where last week was all about rallying, this week's theme seems to be about warning shots across the bow. Sunday night's slide, Monday night's collapse, and then Tuesday afternoon's drop. The first two were retraced entirely, and the latter corrected by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}. All of which could resolve up to a fresh high close -- indeed, a new high close is already required by two of last week's setups. But we can expect briefer and shallower surges as this late stage of the rally is built on shakier ground. After attacking 3307.00 overnight, Tuesday morning's bias-down signal was ignored despite being triggered cleanly. Rallying above its 3322.75 bias-down signal up to 3329.75 had required being retraced, which the afternoon drop fulfilled. The afternoon drop's low also fulfilled the morning's 3316.25 bias-down target. Regardless of the afternoon drop being triggered by a headline, that artificial catalyst doesn't reinforce what might have developed organically. Rather, it overwhelms the drop's sponsorship with weak hands that make its retracement likely. The headline's reaction was at least corrected by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} to attack 3326.00, and any higher would likely be rewarded by new highs above 3330.00. No particular timing is required for resolving the pattern either way. But there has been sufficient backing-and-filling in both directions for the next trending attempt to be credible for extending in that direction. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3325.00 3324.75 ...would target 3331.25 3331.00 Bias-down: under 3317.00 3317.00 ...would target 3311.00 3311.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.