Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... The holiday-shortened week began with a paradigm shift. Tuesday's 17-point gap down from Friday's close eventually found reinforcements to extend the relentless overnight decline. But it was still past the opening 15 minutes of volatility before actually touching Friday's 2649.00 low. Trending down into the final hour's 2616.50 low encountered a counter-trend effort that was triggered by favorable China trade headlines. The last minute alone spiked up 10 points. Bouncing 22 points in total was still well short of 2656.00 -- which combined with the open under 2656.00 to reject Friday's close above 2656.00, and the rally's next higher objective it had put into play. Overnight action's new info... last night's pattern just disqualified itself from being only a sideways range? The Globex open initially retraced half of Tuesday's late bounce back down to 2627.50, which was reversed up to fresh recovery highs at 2642.00. Reacting down gradually through midnight accelerated into and out of Europe's opens until touching the earlier 2627.50 low. Recovering back up to the 2642.00 interim high has just now started breaking higher, touching 2647.00 with enough distance and complexity to be credible for extending higher -- and to be credible for reversing back down if the earlier range is revisited. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) An overnight sideways range that delays breaking out until 1-2 hours pre-open tends to be retraced back to the range, and then either resumes the breakout, or else reverses it. Last night's range was broken before that window, so reversing back into the range would be more credible for extending down. Returning into the range is required. Tuesday's rejection of Friday's close above 2656.00 didn't itself reverse the trend back down, so an attempt today to reinstate higher targets is possible. The bounce from yesterday's low could test 2656.00-2666.00 before suggesting that Tuesday's drop was only a detour. Meanwhile, we're considering Tuesday's sudden, steep and substantial reversal from the prior session's fresh recovery to qualify as a two-session formation of the intraday reversal we already anticipated to be this stage's topping pattern. Regardless, any setup still need the confirmation of a second consecutive lower close on Wednesday. Tuesday's drop was next targeting 2605.00, and its attraction which could help to resume the decline. Another 25 points lower is the last relative low that launched the most recent upleg, and its break would signal a new downtrend underway. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2643.00 would be likely to trigger the 2638.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2635.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Overnight rally extends, then collapses. The 2627.50-2642.00 overnight range had broken higher to 2647.00 long enough before the open that its failure would likely be more than just noise. Extending higher post open attacked 2654.00, but barely held above the 2646.75 bias-up target at 10:15. That officially renewed the bias-up signal. But the same downleg underway at 10:15 continued extending down, with room back down to the 2638.50 bias-up signal during the bias-up environment. It was tested at 10:30, but its reaction up to 2643.00 maintained the downside momentum.

Fresh pullback lows have now retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the earlier overnight range down to 2632.50. A retracement up to the 2638.50 bias-up signal is required for having probed under it during a bias-up environment -- unless the bias environment is exited under its 2625.25 bias-down signal.

Meanwhile, a little more room for noise down to 2629.50 could still be tested, and still be likely to retrace 2638.50. But any lower would essentially target 2625.25, and at least delay the 2638.50 retest.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2631.25 2631.25 ...would target 2637.50 2637.50 Bias-down: under 2615.25 2615.50 ...would target 2605.50 2605.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Noon hour bounce gains no traction. This morning's drop extended to 2632.50 while still being required to retrace the 2638.50 bias-up signal. Its retracement was close enough to the bias environment lapsing that its attraction was neutralized. The drop resumed down to the noon hour's 2612.50 low. 2605.00 is still the likely objective. Bouncing through the noon hour has extended to attack this afternoon's 2631.25 bias-up signal. A couple of supportive levels could slow a reversal down, but back under 2622.75 would start to signal the decline has resumed. Otherwise, probing any higher would require being retraced, but not after the bias environment starts lapsing. Even the most bearish drop isn't required to resume today, but closing in negative territory if not also under yesterday's 2616.50 low would be likely unless a bigger bounce were about to begin.

Gapping up 10 points Wednesday to 2646.00 wasn't any more bullish than extending higher through the open to test 2651.00. There was that much room for noise while still being within the gravitational pull of 2605.00. The 2651.00 test did add 3 points while being overlapped during the first half-hour. But the balance of the morning resolved down into the noon hour, probing 4 points under Tuesday's low to 2612.50. Still short of the 2605.00 objective. Wednesday afternoon's bounce made it back up to 2639.50 which doesn't reverse the trend up. But it wasn't maintained, as the last half-hour ranged narrowly sideways. Back under 2632.00 overnight could start to resume the decline, but there is otherwise room up to 2656.00-2666.00 before suggesting the past two sessions have been only a temporary detour. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2643.00 2643.00 ...would target 2650.00 2650.00 Bias-down: under 2631.75 2632.00 ...would target 2626.75 2627.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.