Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday's steep intraday dip and recovery was followed by a scaled down version overnight. The latter gapped up Tuesday to probe fresh highs at 3862.00, just enough to neutralize unfinished business and test both bias-up parameters before reversing back down to 3840.00 by noon. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Blipping-up momentarily to the bias-up signal at 3853.00 was reversed to the 3836.00 bias-down signal well before midnight. Ranging choppily sideways there through midnight and through Europe's opens. EU/AstraZeneca vaccine crunch confusion seems to have triggered an eventual break lower that is now testing and retesting 3800.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) For a sideways ranging session, creating two items of unfinished business reflected a lot of argument beneath the surface. Yesterday morning's offsetting bias tests at 3837.00 and 3828.00 are now neutralized. But the newly created unfinished business at the open's 3858.25 gap beyond all prior highs remains outstanding. And it can remain outstanding indefinitely. So the question is whether this overnight drop is beginning a sizeable downdraft. The bigger picture already told us fresh highs would be quickly rejected at their target. Internal breadth already started deteriorating last week. Recoveries stopping short of any relevant resistance already told us strong hands weren't using the dips to accumulate. And the short-squeeze focus/distraction had begun mirroring the bearish Paul Tudor Jones quote I published here yesterday. Can this overnight drop -- possibly only a knee-jerk headline reaction -- extend with this afternoon's FOMC events so near? We'll look at the opening indication for the next clue. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Post-open plunge largely retraced. Overnight lows ultimately reached 3790.00 before greeting the open at 3806.00. Another plunge quickly extended down to 3759.50 where 1-minute RSI finally diverged positively. Its reaction has retraced all but 3 points of the post-open plunge. Which leaves the pre-open plunge. So, one plunge retraced, one to go. And that has been the problem with retracing the week's prior dips. No relevant level is being recovered by all of that buying pressure. It's not necessarily a sell signal, but it is a sign of vulnerability. The gap-to-gap proxy is 3820.00-3828.50, and then the actual gap back to yesterday's 3842.50 cash session close. Either could be tested and still not recover a relevant resistance to indicate that buying pressure had gained any traction for its effort. Meanwhile, another dip has room down to 3774.00-3777.00 before starting to signal the post-open bounce has failed.

WED P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3774.00 signal would target 3791.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3761.50 signal would target 3751.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3782.00 3774.00 ...would target 3799.00 3791.00 Bias-down: under 3769.25 3761.50 ...would target 3759.25 3751.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Awaiting FOMC events. Retracing the post-open plunge to within 3 points of the 3806.00 open was unable to extend higher. The alternative pullback target was exceeded down to 3763.00 at noon. That's when afternoon FOMC events become an overriding influence. And it's not usual for strong-handed sponsorship to start trending. Not in either direction. The absence of trending leaves a vacuum, and that is filled by attractions. The only attraction was back toward or to yesterday's close. It's no likelier to be attacked or tested, but it does define the direction. And the direction has been up. This afternoon's bias-up target was probed by 2 points up to 3793.00. We're now awaiting the 2:00 FOMC policy statement, and then the 2:30 Fed chair Q&A.  

Monday's intraday and overnight dips had rewarded their buyers only with being retraced to test 3852.00, but not reversed. So, buyers weren't very helpful with Tuesday night's dip, or with Wednesday's follow-through. Gapping down 36 points to 3806.00 eventually extended down another 100 points through the close, and the lowest levels in 3 weeks. A bearish PM Traction setup formed, which expects the next morning's bias window to trend down. This doesn't preclude gapping up first. Trending up through the first-15 minutes could invalidate the setup. The likely next significant lower attraction is 3695.00-3700.00. Its test isn't necessary before launching a recovery, or at least a significant corrective bounce. Wednesday's 3749.00 cash session close avoided triggering a trend change, which a second close under 3741.00 would have confirmed. Nevertheless, closing under 3741.00 Thursday would suggest downtrending will persist into and out of the weekend. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3757.00 signal would target 3777.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3738.50 signal would target 3723.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3765.00 3757.00 ...would target 3785.00 3777.00 Bias-down: under 3746.25 3738.50 ...would target 3731.25 3723.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE