Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Mon night had ranged up to the 4135 bias-up signal and back down to greet the open at the 4110 bias-down signal. Testing it down to 4106-4108 through Tue's first hour made a probe lower likely, but detoured up to greet Powell at 4120. That position of weakness -- having prematurely left an attraction below -- didn't prevent reacting up sharply anyway to 4175. And the sharp reaction didn't prevent reversing to fresh lows anyway at 4098. Most astonishing yet was that after having fulfilled downside potential, earlier highs were retested up to 4188.
Overnight price points : Tue's late short-squeeze was already corrected by 61.8% to 4164 into the close. Firming during Biden's SOTU retraced 61.8% back to Tue high at 4170 through midnight. Reversing back down through Europe's opens has been testing the 4160 bias-down signal.
Catalysts : Earnings, Powell fallout, SOTU digestion, Fed speakers upcoming.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Recovery.
Their influences : Rallying Tue out of Mon's test of pullback limits has returned to the orbit of Thu's overbought RSIs requiring a retest of 4208, and Wed's confirmed breakout requiring a fresh high close.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : Overnight weakness remains within the bias signals, not yet signaling a reversal back down. And 61.8% fluctuations since launching yesterday's late surge reflect a pullback mentality. Bias-down would be credible if triggered, but otherwise yesterday's uptrending remains intact and free to resume this morning with the 4208 high up to 4231 in-play. Planner begins by describing a trade no developing that is targeting a fresh overnight low whose detour could stretch the rubber band to snap back up.
Alternative : Exiting the open under 4166 would be vulnerable to a little more backing-and-filling this morning to correct more of Tue afternoon's rally. Room down to 4145 threatening to become something more substantial and longer-lasting.
Levels : UP: 4208, 4231, 4263... DOWN: 4140, 118, 4074.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Tue's late short-squeeze was already corrected by 61.8% to 4164 into the close. Firming during Biden's SOTU retraced 61.8% back to Tue high at 4170 through midnight. Reversing back down through Europe's opens has been testing the 4160 bias-down signal.
New price points : Planner had described a Complex descending triangle that targeted 4150-4152, which was finally met at the open. The pattern's steep reaction up attacked 4167, and retested it. But ultimately hawkish Fed speaker headlines triggered bias-down that probed lower to 4141.
Catalysts : Earnings, Powell fallout, SOTU digestion, Fed speakers upcoming.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : LATE BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET... 5-Stage pattern.
Their influences : Ripping away the Complex Triangle's influence handed it to a 5-Stage pattern that is now forming stage-4's trough -- with stage-5 being either a recovery to 4158 or else resuming the decline.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : The overnight Complex pattern was tracking its template of its target and steep recovery leg but couldn't prevent being ambushed by Fed speaker headlines. So, I'm assuming that not absorbing their reactions in time has instead relinquished the morning's control to sellers. And that the next timing window will give a recovery a better chance. If it's signaled.
Alternative : Meanwhile, there was room for noise down to 4145 that's now being probed and must recover into the noon hour to avoid a more substantial and longer-lasting pullback.
Levels : UP: 4208, 4231, 4263... DOWN: 4140, 4118, 4074.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

day P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 4143, targeting 4158.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4126, targeting 4112.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.