Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 03-06-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Thursday''s gap up didn''t reach the 2103.50 pre-open high before reversing to fill the gap back down toward Wednesday''s 2096.00 close. Its reaction up made a lower high before reversing again into the noon hour, and almost 3 points into negative territory. Its recovery spent the balance of the session ranging choppily in positive territory, centered around Wednesday''s 2099.00-2099.75 highs.

Overnight action''s new info...
Narrow sideways ranging between 2098.00-2101.00 largely defined price action until only moments ago. A sudden 3-1/2 point surge from between 2099.00-2099.75 just attacked yesterday''s 2103.50 pre-open high to within 2 ticks.

If, then...
Overnight fluctuation ahead of the monthly Employment Situation report is often only noise. Sentiment tends to be contrarian to the actual reaction. Yesterday''s range was too narrow relative to the prior day, and this pre-open surge is too late relative to the news, for either to be considered reliably as sentiment. Maintaining a gap up would have potential back to the highs, or at least to launch a sizable morning rally. But a gap up would be vulnerable to reversing down until outlasting the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And gapping down would be vulnerable to extending through the close.

First Trade...
There are no preliminary levels ahead of an Employment Situation report, which is due momentarily.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2084.25
2082.75
...would target 2089.50
2088.00
Bias-down: under 2079.25
2077.75
...would target 2073.25
2071.75
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The required third lower close was produced Friday. In a very big way. And since Friday lows are unusual in currencies, the next lower target in-play is 1.0750.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
We knew recovery attempts weren''t neutralizing the attraction below, but we underestimated how deep of a hole was being dug by the ongoing weak-handed buying. The 1194.00 target was met overnight, and bounced to 1197.00. The Employment Situation report triggered a plunge through the 1186.00-1188.00 extended target, which then extended throughout the day to 1163.00. Bounce potential is to 1177.00, but otherwise the next lower target is 1154.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday''s drop extended the reversal to almost $1 from the recent ~16.80 high. The next lower target in-play is 15.35, and potentially 14.65, so long as 16.00 isn''t recovered.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The negative reaction to Friday''s Employment Situation report dropped sharply to within 1 tick of the 154-26 target identified after the open. Reacting up 1 point may have been more the function of a flight-to-safety while the stock market extended a deep decline. There''s no buy signal at this stage.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday''s break under the current 50.00. sell signal extended down test to the original 49.00 sell signal, which was holding through the afternoon. Delaying a new downleg to fresh lows is unlikely without gapping up sharply Monday.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday''s close at the 2.84 confirmation gapped down Friday, to test the 2.77 buy signal as support.. That was recovered back up to 2.84. And through it, temporarily, ending the day still overlapping 2.84.