Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday was greeted by a 5{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit down overnight, and the open immediately triggered its 7{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit down halt. Re-opening lower attacked 2480.00 and reacted up to 2575.00. All during the first half hour, and all of which was retraced into the noon hour low. Which might have extended but for the FOMC's surprise repo, triggering a 160-point surge up to 2647.50. Like all knee-jerk headline reactions, at least a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement was likely. This one was all retraced into the final hour. And the final minutes fulfilled expectation for a melt-down that touched 2433.75. Closing down 2456.00 from 2728.00 was a record one-day point loss. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Thursday night's open immediately dipped further to 2406.25. And then immediately recovered up to 2472.00. That was just the first hour of Globex, plenty of time for another drop, so 2380.00 was tested by midnight. And its complexity formed a "new Globex trend extreme." Then almost like clockwork, a surge began that extended up to 2550.00. Its reaction down to 2465.00 was recovered to fresh highs attacking 2579.00, 200 points off of midnight's low. Europe's opens triggered another pullback which is trying to recover, but has not. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) A lot of setups are under consideration. And a massive buying frenzy is being threatened. But despite the overnight boomerang, recovering further today is not at all assured. Not, yet -- there are hurdles.

PM TRACTION: Thursday afternoon's sellers gained traction for their efforts, so trending down post-open through the morning remains likely. Trending up beyond the 9:45 high could invalidate their downside traction. SESSION-LONG: The overnight high is within 2 points of yesterday afternoon's 2580.00 bias environment high. Gapping up above it could trigger a "session-long rally." Rejecting its test through 9:45 could be as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. NEW GLOBEX TREND EXTREME: Last night's initial dip was complex, forming a "new Globex trend extreme" that requires eventual intraday retest. Often the same day, but not necessarily.

There's also Friday Factors, which can cut either way, exacerbating a bullish or bearish setup. And the Opening Thrust, which could marginalize sellers or buyers for the day depending on the outcome of testing a relevant level through the open. The counterpart to yesterday afternoon's 2580.00 bias environment high is 2568.00, and whether or not it holds an opening test could react 150 points in either direction. If buyers gain traction through these setups, a massive buying frenzy is certainly possible, if not likely. But probably not through the afternoon without having triggered the session-long rally setup. And look out below if a rally's hesitation is interpreted as having triggered a Catch-22 (not a setup, but a story by Joseph Heller) -- rallying too much too soon would diminish odds for further easing at next week's FOMC meeting. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2525.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2514.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2490.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2484.00 bias-up signal.

Limit up holding as resistance. As suspected, the overnight rally faced many hurdles to extending higher post-open. The 2582.00 limit up was freed to trade, and the 2608.75 open quickly extended up to 2624.00. And then it collapsed. The first half-hour trended down to 2534.75. Correcting up to 2597.50 was resolved down again,to fresh lows at down to 2523.00. Another lower low, downtrending since the open.

Yesterday afternoon's bearish PM Traction is influencing post-open price action to trend down. That influence begins lapsing with the bias environment.

Isolation will finish forming by holding above 2487.00 through noon. Closing any lower would fail to trigger the bullish setup, and could be as bearish as it would have been bullish.

The session-long rally setup probed well above its 2580.00 signal, and well below it -- a 73-point range. Yet it was neither recovered nor rejected when it mattered at 9:45, still being overlapped.

This morning's pattern so far is not accumulative. Entering the noon hour under 2551.00 or 2535.00 could officially marginalize buyers for the balance of the session, and even trend down further today. Another late afternoon meltdown cannot be dismissed if not yet rallying out of the noon hour.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2532.00 2518.00 ...would target 2557.00 2543.00 Bias-down: under 2495.00 2485.00 ...would target 2475.00 2465.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Sellers marginalized? Yesterday's bearish PM Traction signal influenced this morning by trending down from the 2608.75 open. The 2476.50 low pierced yesterday's last relative low to dismiss the Isolation setup. That hasn't prevented bouncing since then. In fact, the afternoon's bias-up signal was renewed above its bias-up target through 1:20, and 2576.25 was just touched. The opposite of down is not "up." It is "not down." This being a Friday afternoon, and the morning-long selloff being completed and largely retraced, sellers may be marginalized for the day. While that makes the afternoon vulnerable to bouncing further, it only suggests that sellers are marginalized for the day. A melt-up is possible, too. I'm suspicious of being able to generate that sponsorship while Trump's 3:00 ET press conference is pending. I'll have to see the price and pattern leading into the event to assess any actionable parameters -- even a sell signal in case something un-marginalizes sellers.

Thursday night's limit up to 2582.00 extended only higher only briefly to 2624.00 and quickly reversed back under 2601.00 to reverse momentum down. Rejecting session-long rally" setup made its influence as bearish as it would have been bullish. Combined with Thursday afternoon's bearish PM traction setup, Friday morning trended down to 2476.00. That's a lot of selling pressure, especially on a Friday morning, only to test the prior session's prior relative lows. Extending any deeper during the noon hour would have been bearish, but only rallying during the noon hour marginalized sellers for the day. Flat or flat-to-higher was likely for the balance of the session, which wouldn't have been very exciting on a typical Friday. Melting up is possible in a flat-to-higher environment, but that was unlikely ahead of Trump's late-afternoon press conference. It was very possible once his opening remarks were made. A brief dip to 2511.75 stretched the rubber band to snap back up, extending relentlessly higher through the close to touch 2697.25. Not a typo. Last-minute surges or collapses that originate from trading ranges are sponsored by weak-hands. Like the two prior Fridays, at least an initial reaction Sunday night and/or Monday is likely, whether 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} to 2588.00, entirely back down to 2522.00, or reversing back down to lower lows. Just touching Thursday's repo reaction high 2646.75 would have put into play a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of Wednesday's range up to 2755.00. But Friday's last-minute surge already touched Wednesday's range, so extending any higher should also probe above Wednesday's range -- presumably to the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement at 2833.00. Otherwise, having touched Wednesday's range, not already extending higher out of the weekend or at Monday's open would likely already be reversing down. Thursday's post-halt open at 2526.00 can now be filled from above to neutralize its attraction below. And Thursday's night's 2380.00 new Globex trend extreme would also be a likely objective. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2725.00 2711.00 ...would target 2747.00 2733.00 Bias-down: under 2672.50 2668.50 ...would target 2647.00 2633.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.