Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Sunday night's immediate 5{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit down re-opened down 7{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} Monday. Re-opening after the halt quickly slipped to within 10 points of a 13{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} halt at 2350.00, neutralizing all "unfinished business" below. Snapping back up almost 200 points extended to the morning's 2548.50 high. The balance of the session trended back down to 2370.50 for history's second worst recorded percentage drop. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Monday's last-minute bounce from 2370.50 up to 2431.00 was largely retraced, but not entirely. And not for long as the Globex open firmed. The bounce eventually extended up to 2498.00 where it met limit up. Price action didn't flatline this time, reacting down occasionally to 2453.00 and 2465.00. The deepest reaction was a 90-minute slide at Europe's opens to within 1 tick of 2370.50. Completely retracing limit up hasn't much inhibited buyers, at least not to prevent retracing the slide by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} and its room for noise up to 2481.50. Its reaction back down to 2441.00 is now threatening to end the bounce. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Another limit up denied, this time during the same overnight session. Surely this is the day for towel-throwing like overly-pessimistic post-open selling that triggers trading curbs, or a crash that recovers organically intraday. The latter could be done from gapping up high enough before repeating the overnight limit up rejection. Until then, or unless the open suggests that sellers can be marginalized for the morning, I'm still looking at bounces for short-entry. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2443.00 would be likely to trigger the 2431.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2418.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Most recently tested the bias-down signal. Pre-open strength extended post-open up to 2455.25. The stretched rubber band identified an early sell signal under 2427.25 that extended down to test 2377.00. Its reaction was contained within the allowable 3-4 minutes, albeit back up to 2415.00, before its drop resumed down to 2352.00. 2352.00 is 17+ points under the overnight low AND under yesterday afternoon's low. Suspicions about the overnight limit up can now turn to suspicion that any interim bounce is only delaying a more substantial capitulation. Bounces can still be played. The low tested this morning's 2364.25 bias-down signal's support, while RSIs diverged positively. Probing back above the bounce limit higher than its first 3 minutes violated it, and the nearest buy signal at 2377.00 triggered. Already, it has extended up to 2426.75. Also, this is now a "no-bias environment." Having most recently held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2431.00 signal is in-play. That was already tested before signaling no-bias, but it's usually retested afterward anyway. If tested it should also define the window's upper-end, at least until the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2522.00 2508.00 ...would target 2542.00 2528.00 Bias-down: under 2484.50 2470.50 ...would target 2447.00 2433.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still possible for a rally effort to extend before the close? The morning's 2431.00 bias-up signal became "unfinished business" by probing above it during the no-bias environment. That didn't prevent extending much higher -- attacking 2543.00 during the noon hour, 191 points off the 2352.00 post-open low. But it required its eventual retracement anyway. And a 111-point drop back down to 2432.50 qualifies for neutralizing its attraction. That last drop triggered the afternoon's bias-down signal. Its 2433.00 bias-down target is already met, so can this afternoon trying rallying again? I'll give it a benefit of the doubt if attempted -- which it currently is. Already a bounce is attacking 2510.00. Prematurely probing above the afternoon's 2470.50 bias-down signal during its bias-down environment will require retesting 2470.50. I came into the session expecting any recovery effort to fail. While 1-2 efforts have failed, those failures have themselves failed to produce a break under prior lows. Otherwise, there's still a path lower. Back under 2477.00 or lower coming out of the bias environment and going into the final hour would all but marginalize buyers for the day. And that could become a major disappointment to the earlier recovery efforts, still entirely capable of probing new lows before the close.

Monday night's limit up at 2498.00 was premature for launching a rally out of Monday's range, and never threatened Monday's 2548.50 high. Reacting down through Tuesday's open reached 2352.00 where another rally launched. Monday's high was at least attacked to within 6 points, but only attacked despite being allowed to extend without fear of limit or halt. The balance of the session ranged choppily between 2433.00-2534.00 -- in other words, still ranging around the overnight limit up. Restrained optimism? And a lot of it, if that's what it is. That would be bullish from a contrarian perspective, so fresh highs into and/or out of Wednesday's open would be credible for extending higher intraday. A multi-session rally could be underway. Meanwhile, the vulnerability remains alive to probing new lows, where an organic recovery through the close could form a more credible bottom -- and where not recovering through the close could instead resume the decline. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2529.00 2515.00 ...would target 2561.00 2547.00 Bias-down: under 2471.25 2467.25 ...would target 2458.50 2444.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.