Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 03-19-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

REMINDER: TRAINING SESSION
-- tonight at 6:15 ET --

Through the prior close...
"Ineffectual optimism" delayed Wednesday''s open from touching Tuesday''s 2056.25 low any closer than 3 ticks. Then it limited the retest of Tuesday''s low to momentarily piercing it by 1 point. But it finally succumbed to probing under Tuesday''s low by 4 points. That neutralized sellers just in time for a very favorable reaction to the FOMC events, surging to within 1 tick of 2100.00. Reacting down to 2088.50 left outstanding overbought RSIs at the high.

Overnight action''s new info...
A similar pattern to Tuesday night worked its way back to within 2 ticks of Wednesday''s high at 2099.00, and then slid nearly 13 points to 2086.25. 

If, then...
Post-FOMC reactions tend to be retraced entirely within one week. Probing fresh highs through this morning''s open would all but ensure that path includes a new high. Following the path to new highs would likely develop quickly, if at all. Influence from this week''s impending expiration probably exacerbated yesterday''s FOMC reaction. Slowing that reaction would suggest its influence had lapsed altogether.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2100.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2097.75 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2085.00 would be likely to trigger the 2087.75 bias-down signal.

The overnight slide had extended a little deeper to test 2085.00 into and out of the open. Holding it or not through 9:45 would offer advance notice of the 2087.75 bias-down signal''s resolution 30 minutes later at 10:15.

2085.00 did not hold as support at 9:45. 

In fact, at 9:45, the 2081.75 bias-down target was being tested already. Its reaction up touched the bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period. Extending up to 2089.50 proved only temporary, and the grace period at 10:30 did trigger the 2087.75 bias-down signal.

Now 2085.00 is being tested as support, again.

The bias-down target doesn''t require a retest, but this is still a bias-down environment. There is room for noise under the bias-down target to 2079.75 before suggesting a deeper decline is underway. Meanwhile, until the  bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30, the 2087.75 bias-down signal should define its upper-end.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2092.25
2083.75
...would target 2097.25
2088.75
Bias-down: under 2083.25
2074.75
...would target 2077.75
2069.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The post-close surge that exceeded Wednesday''s already sizable reaction to FOMC was retraced entirely overnight, along with the FOMC reaction. Opening back at what had been 1.0650 resistance and fluctuating around could extend lower to 1.0590 and 1.0445.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday''s post-close surge to 1177.00 was retraced back down to test 1161.00, which held as support to signal a breakout now targeting 1197.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday''s post-close surge was conslidated overnight, but not reversed back down Thursday. In fact, it extended higher to close at 16.10 resistance, putting into play potential to 17.25.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs overnight up to 164-07 were retraced intraday to test 163-00 support, having potential down to 161-28 before suggesting the trend may be reversing down. Sell signals aren''t triggered the same day as new highs are printed.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
.Wednesday''s late surge through its 46.60 buy signal was already suspicious, and more so after initially extending slightly higher to test 47.45 was retraced enough to wipe out Wednesday''s gains. Thursday essentially ranged around Tuesday''s close, likely to resume the decline so long as 46.60 isn''t recovered again.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The negative reaction to Thursday''s EIA held 2.77 support, so that closing back above 2.84 should launch a new upleg. Meanwhile, there continues to be room for gapping and filling back to support if a base is forming.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2095.25
2088.00
...would target 2103.25
2095.00
Bias-down: under 2082.75
2074.50
...would target 2076.75
2068.50
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET
FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.