Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Last week's three-day range at pullback lows could have resolved down, but up was likelier, and there was no delay. Sunday night's open spiked up from Friday's 2483.00 close and extended to 2587.00 to the overnight high. The pre-open pullback to 2564.00 was quickly retested post-open before snapping back up, and trending higher through the afternoon to attack 2631.00. The session ended much the same way it began, surging 40 points and well above last week's highs up to 2668.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Monday's late surge had corrected at least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} down to 2638.75 before the close. Only several points lower through the Globex open was enough to launch a retest of Monday's last-minute high. Reacting down deeper to 2623.50 was done by midnight, when the rally resumed. Trending uprelentlessly since then has touched 2745.00, levels last seen four weeks ago on the way down. Yesterday's potential for a +10{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} day was undermined by the post-open detour, and was only a contender thanks to the late surge but last night's high has crossed the +10{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} threshold. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's potential for a +10{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} day was undermined by the post-open detour, and was only a contender thanks to the late surge. Monday afternoon's flat-to-higher ranging had not gained traction before the late surge. Extending higher wasn't required, but extending higher required gapping up. Now the question is whether the gap up can negotiate the resistance it is testing. Rallying post-open could depend on exceeding the four-week old "higher prior lows" around 2717.00 and their 2746.00 prior high through 9:45 if either is even touched post-open. Otherwise, backing-and-filling from yesterday's close was already a possible morning path, which the gap up doesn't affect. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters) The open is indicated well above this morning's bias parameters.

But pretty much down since the open's surge. A pre-open pullback to 2716.00 recovered to greet the open at 2740.00, where an eventual surge probed the overnight high by 5 points up to 2750.00. Seems pretty bullish. Except the first 3 minutes were still overlapping the open, not extending higher. And there's no less potential this morning for backing-and-filling. Reacting down sharply to attack the 2716.00 pre-open low did react up. Holding a test of the 2721.00 "higher prior low" as support through the 9:45 open formed a position of strength likely to probe a fresh recovery high. That fresh recovery remains outstanding. A bounce only got to 2741.00 before reversing to fresh lows. The 61.8 of the 61.8 gap-to-gap retracement at 2691.00 was targeted, and touching it has only bounced. But only bounced a little. Lower remains possible. Meanwhile, RSIs improved or diverged positively into the 2691.00 target's test. And the open's position of strength offers context that suggests this dip is temporary. Back above 2711.25 would help to confirm that a low is in, if not also that momentum has already reversed up.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2735.25 2727.25 ...would target 2751.00 2743.00 Bias-down: under 2709.50 2701.50 ...would target 2694.00 2686.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Staying afloat. The open's surge to 2750.00 had reversed down to test 2721.00 as support. Holding its 4-week old "higher prior low" through 9:45 created a position of strength making new highs likely. Meanwhile, the context would make a deeper pullback likely to recover. Which a deeper pullback down to 2678.50 did (leaving "unfinished business" at its oversold RSIs). The noon hour bounced up to 2738.00 -- still no new high, but still a position of strength likely to recover another deeper pullback. Or, the afternoon bias environment will only range sideways. It just triggered no-bias, and isn't required even to try trending, but trending attempts should be contained between 2701.50-2727.25. Breaking either way before the close isn't required, but breaking after 2:30 would be likely to extend in that direction.

Monday's rally didn't resume until midnight. The delay was compensated with a 122-point gain up to 2745.00. Tuesday's open blipped-up a little more to 2750.00 and immediately peaked. The four-week old resistance there held its test through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to rob buyers of their traction. But then a quick reaction down to its counterpart held its test of support to form a position of strength. A position of strength,not to prevent an interim dip but to make recovering from an interim dip likely. Clearly not to prevent an interim dip. And not to prevent a session-long dip, either, apparently. The morning did produce an interim dip down to 2678.50 but its recovery only attacked the 2740.00 open, not fresh highs. And the balance of the session trended down, almost ending with a 47-point bounce from 2652.00 that collapsed 64 points to 2635.00 through the close. That late collapse was a (MOC?) headline reaction, likely to be corrected, retraced or reversed. Probably not the latter before probing lower since Tuesday afternoon sellers gained traction, so Wednesday morning is likely to trend down. That late collapse also prevented confirming Monday's breakout. Anyway, confirmation that trends down would have made Wednesday a likely pullback day anyway. Gapping up Wednesday above Tuesday afternoon's bias environment high 2721.00 could reject Tuesday's bearish setups to form a session-long rally. Alternatively, recovering after Wednesday morning or Thursday would also allow the recovery to resume, next targeting 2825.00-2827.00. But further upside is only likely, not required. A pullback has room down to 2516.00-2525.00 before suggesting the bear market rally has ended. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2680.00 2672.00 ...would target 2704.50 2694.50 Bias-down: under 2629.50 2621.50 ...would target 2606.25 2598.25 Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.