Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 04-11-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== [IGNORE MY REQUEST TODAY TO TEST THE ADOBE RECORDING] Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Not already trending down at Monday's open had signaled that the current range is bottoming. Rallying through the open to attack 2363.00 had marginalized strong-handed sellers. A pullback was expected, regardless of its catalyst, which happened to be a headline about Chinese troops amassing at N. Korea's border. The drop to 2347.50 was recovered to within 3 points of the morning's high. On a bullish note, that triggered bias-up to create new "unfinished business above" at 2362.75. Also, the close was in positive territory. But closing under the morning's high doesn't yet signal the pullback has ended. Overnight action's new info... Price action has been contained within the range of yesterday afternoon's recovery. Barely. Globex began by trending back down to touch yesterday's 2347.50 low. The balance of the night firmed back up to yesterday's 2352.50-2353.50 close, which is still being tested now. If, then... Probing Monday above Thu-Fri ~2361.00 highs has created a new threshold for the rally potential to remain alive. Tuesday's open should so what Monday did not, by quickly recovering back above the probed highs. That's not at all assured. Already rallying overnight was the likeliest path to fulfilling this bullish template. The open is still two hours away as of this writing, and price being unchanged is in proximity to start rallying. Unfinished business above at 2362.75 and 2364.50 would be the likely objectives, but opening lower could instead allow a new downleg to begin anyway. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2350.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2349.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2346.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2359.00 would be likely to trigger the 2357.00 bias-up signal.

Strong-handed buyers step aside. The open quickly pierced yesterday's 2347.50 low by several ticks and then bounced up to 2351.75. But only briefly, as a deeper drop tested 2341.00. Its reaction up attacked yesterday's lows as resistance, but resolved down again. This time, much deeper, down to 2334.75. Yesterday's opening setup, afternoon bounce and positive close all indicate that strong-handed sellers are marginalized. And yet another downleg is developing in reaction to headlines. That's the behavior of impatient weak-handed sellers.

The near-term effect on price can be indistinguishable. Down is down. How far down and whether it stays down makes the difference.

Exiting the bias environment back above its 2343.50 bias-down target would confirm that strong-handed sellers remain marginalized. It might also start to suggest that strong-handed buyers are attracted. Otherwise, not yet rejecting these fresh lows would suggest much lower levels are in-play, essentially 2327.00, 2321.00 and potentially 2311.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2346.00  2343.00 ...would target  2352.25  2349.50 Bias-down: under  2337.75 2335.00 ...would target 2331.50  2328.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Much of morning's drop already recovered. Or corrected. The timing of this morning's downlegs resemble yesterday, still coinciding with negative headlines. Today's aren't recovering before resolving down, so recovering them would be done by one comprehensive upleg -- if done, at all. The minimum objective would be 2349.00. 2349.00 is pretty far removed from the morning's 2333.25 low. The bias environment exit was just 3 points short of the 2343.50 level whose recovery could have undermined sellers already. Too late for that, now 2349.00 is required. So, undermining sellers now requires a more substantial move. Considering the time limit, that move will need to be steep. In fact, the noon hour just produced a 7 points surge to 2345.00. And it has added another 6 ticks. The 2349.00 objective is no longer so much further away. This being the noon hour, this might be only a temporary corrective bounce. Triggering the 2343.00 bias-up signal would help to undermine sellers. But entering or exiting the bias environment above its 2349.50 bias-up target would be optimal.

SPECIAL PROGRAMMING NOTE: I WILL BE UNAVAILABLE 10:30-2:30 ET (after the market's first hour, until the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing). The chaRTroom will remain open throughout. Largely recovering Tuesday morning's 18-point plunge has the same two or three meanings the same setup had on Monday. The drop was the product of weak-handed sellers, nothing prevents probing even lower intraday again, and probing lower could attract strong-handed sellers anyway. The strong-handed / weak-handed struggle can cut either way. It stops being bottoming, and starts rolling over, if there's rotation between the sponsorship. For example, Tuesday's drop to 2333.25 recovered 2343.50 too late to be the product of strong hands. The next threshold of recovery at 2349.00 was met, but not exceeded. And not for lack of opportunity -- it was tested before entering the afternoon bias environment and coming out of it, then again into the close. So, sellers haven't definitively retaken control. The intraday probe under the 2345.00 area now requires buyers to leverage that hesitation, definitively themselves by greeting Wednesday's open in rally mode. The setup is similar to what Monday's close left for Tuesday's open, but no longer optional -- any delay creates large vacuum that would require 2321.00 to plug it. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Please also test the Adobe recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2356.50 2353.50 ...would target  2361.75  2359.00 Bias-down: under  2347.00 2344.25 ...would target 2341.00  2338.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.