Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 04-29-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

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(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Tuesday morning''s dive from 2104.25 to 2088.25 was recovered into the bias environment''s exit. Probing under the bias-down signal and two bias-down targets was rejected back up to 2110.25. The critical 2090.00-2095.25 range held another test. What could be more bullish? Attracting new sponsorship. But the only probe higher came into the futures close, which reached 2112.50.

Overnight action''s new info...
Downtrending into Europe''s opens reach 2108.00, then recovered to Tuesday''s 2112.50 post-close high. Rather than extend higher, the lows were just probed down to 2106.00. 

If, then...
A proxy to attracting new sponsorship yesterday afternoon would be to gap up this morning. That likelihood looked much better 3 hours ago when yesterday''s 2112.50 post-close high was being retested. Opening back under yesterday''s highs could still qualify by surging immediately. Otherwise, the most bullish scenario would be to back-and-fill ahead of this afternoon''s FOMC policy statement. But then, greeting the news from a position of weakness would be problematic if yesterday''s lows had not already held a retest.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2101.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2104.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2111.00 would be likely at least to test the 2112.75 bias-up signal, which would likely trigger after exiting the open above 2114.75.

Pullback target holding. Again.

The pre-open dive to 2095.25 was recovered enough to open at 2098.00, and not a tick lower. That''s this morning''s bias-down target, and post-open action surged from there to probe the 2104.25 bias-down signal''s resistance up to 2107.00.

Resistance held, and 2098.00 was retested. It was still being tested at 10:15 to trigger no-bias, target met. Probing under it by a couple of points came too late to renew the bias-down.

Usually, the target holds after failing to exploit the opportunity to renew the bias signal. In fact, now a reaction up has touched 2102.50. There''s room up to the 2104.25 bias-down signal, and room for noise above it to 2105.00. 

And higher. The bias environment can probe freely above the bias-down signal since its target has been met already.

But this is still a bias-down environment. And there is room for noise under the bias-down target to 2093.50. Dipping that deeply during the open would have all but ensured also testing yesterday''s 2088.25 low. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under 2098.00 still could extend down, anyway -- especially if also under 2093.50.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2111.75
2105.75
...would target 2117.00
2111.00
Bias-down: under 2104.00
2098.00
...would target 2099.50
2093.50
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday''s gap up spiked through 1.1020 and eventually extended to 1.1195. Just recovering above 1.1020 would have suggested the recent bounce may be evolving into a much more substantial rally. But exploding higher does risk being exhaustive, and closing back under 1.1160 would instead suggest a much bigger top was now forming.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday''s surge to 1213.00 resistance reacted back down under 1208.50 and 1205.00 overnight. Wednesday''s opening gap back up to Tuesday''s close was filled, and the reversal down retested 1205.00, whose break Thursday would confirm the dip to at least 1194.50 underway.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jul, trading at a nickel premium to May] Testing of 16.65 resistance reacted down to test 16.50, whose break would still target 16.15.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday''s signal under 162-00 that the corrective bounce had ended and the decline had resumed was rewarded almost immediately by extending down Wednesday morning to 158-22. The outstanding 159-14/159-26 objective was probed, and two consecutive loses under it would signal a much deeper decline underway.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging narrowly persisted Wednesday morning between 56.60-57.70 until a tighter EIA report triggered a surge to fresh highs at the 59.31. Target. Now 58.65 must hold as support to maintain the rally''s momentum to 61.75-62.25.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The firming persisted Wednesday, all the way up to 2.60 resistance, despite never having filled the gap back down to Monday''s 2.49 gap. Closing above 2.60 would still put into play at least 2.80, but back under 2.55 would target the low''s retest.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2110.25
2104.25
...would target 2115.50
2109.50
Bias-down: under 2099.50
2093.50
...would target 2092.50
2086.50
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.