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(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Seeking out buyers at lower and lower levels. Tuesday''s recovery had failed to attract new sponsorship above its 2110.25 intraday high, forcing it to seek out buyers below. Its 2098.00 pullback target defined Wednesday''s open and the bias environment''s low. The noon hour''s dive to 2090.50 was recovered in time to greet the FOMC statement from above 2098.00. Rallying to 2108.00 was a little premature, and the day ended back at 2098.00.

Overnight action''s new info...
Europe''s opens again marked a different tenor as sideways ranging until then suddenly broke lower. Yesterday''s low was pierced by 1 tick at 2090.25. Headlines have been active on BOJ, Ruble, and Greek pension payments.

If, then...
Yesterday''s FOMC reaction was inhibited from extending higher, because of excessive optimism during its initial reactions down to 2095.25. It could have been remedied yesterday at 2093.50. Having tested 2093.50 overnight, gapping up today above 2104.25-2105.00 and extending through yesterday''s highs above 2108.00 would serve by proxy for the delay. Otherwise, the delay now requires retesting Tuesday''s 2088.25 low. Too low could start to attract much more substantial selling pressure.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2090.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2093.50 bias-down signal through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2085.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2086.50 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing its bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2101.50 would make the bias-down signal unlikely to trigger.

Bias-down target met, probed, and held?

The pre-open bounce to 2098.00-2099.00 resistance was repeated post-open, but only to its lower-end. The bigger picture already had made fresh lows likelier than to recover. And back under 2095.00 signaled that to be underway.

A singular effort extended down to fresh lows at 2084.25, satisfying all downside objectives. A bounce to 2089.75 held up above the 2086.50 bias-down target through 10:30, to avoid renewing the bias-down signal

This is still a bias-down environment. Despite not renewing its signal, a fresh low was probed down to 2083.50. Had the signal renewed, the next lower objectives would be 2077.00 and 2070.00-2072.00.

Back above 2087.00 and 2088.50 would be credible for reversing back up. The probe under 2084.25 was isolated between 10:15-10:30, it was within 3 ticks of 2084.25, and its RSIs diverged positively.

Optimal timing would have been to trigger the recovery signals by 10:30. And a fully-formed buy setup that doesn''t actually trigger tends to become as bearish as it would have been bullish. So, look out below if 2087.00 and 2088.50 aren''t recovered soon.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2101.75
2095.25
...would target 2108.00
2101.50
Bias-down: under 2091.50
2085.00
...would target 2084.25
2077.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Holding 1.1160-1.1195 resistance Wednesday didn''t prevent probing higher overnight to test 1.1255. The probe reacted down, but spent the day ranging choppily around 1.1195. A bearish Pivot Reversal setup was avoided, but back under 1.1120 would still signal a pullback or something more substantial underway targeting 1.0855.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing under 1205.00-1208.50 Thursday targeted at least 1194.50, but there was no respite in Thursday''s drop that extended down relentlessly to within $2 of last week''s 1174.10 low. The original 1170.00-1174.00 target area is in-play so long as bounces meanwhile hold 1183.00 or at least 1187.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Hovering at the 16.50-16.65 resistance range''s upper-end was corrected Thursday by plunging to 15.80. Its recovery was testing 16.15, but not decisively recovering it to signal the decline had necessarily ended.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday''s drop down to 158-08 was recovered to test Wednesday''s 158-22 low as resistance, well under what was critical support at 159-14/159-26. Avoiding a decisive second consecutive lower close could still extend down, but I would be careful being long above 160-00.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 59.31 target tested at Wednesday''s high was pierced momentarily overnight and then intraday Thursday. Just avoiding a close back under 57.70 keeps the door open to a fresh high close that can still signal at least 61.75 is in-play.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday''s reaction down from 2.60 had barely touched 2.55 support when the EIA report triggered a surge that attacked the 2.80 target. The target was never put into play through a close, so the pattern''s next higher target at 2.95 is now likely, so long as pullbacks hold 2.67-2.68 as support. There isn''t much tolerance for dipping much deeper -- especially not on Friday, one day following the surge -- which would start to suggest 2.49 will still be tested.