Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday night's gains up to 2899.50 were reversed down suddenly, sharply and steeply to 2868.75. That was before Wednesday's open, and it was still above the afternoon's late 2862.50 low. The gap down held its bias-down signal to trigger no-bias, and its upside objective was met while attacking the overnight highs. Its reaction down recovered enough to attack the morning's high, held back by the afternoon bias-up signal's resistance to trigger no-bias. A very late sell signal triggered under 2891.50 and momentarily probed its 2884.50 target down to 2879.00. The drop's sponsorship was weak-handed, exploiting the stalled recovery, but it also prevented closing above 2892.00-2894.00. The inside day wasn't qualified to form a hold-short setup, but the decline nevertheless remained vulnerable to resuming at any time. Overnight action's new info... Wednesday's inside day seemed to bury its head in the sand to ignore the chart damage being done, and the China trade dispute's impending tariff hikes. Wednesday night pulled its head back out, as the decline seems to have resumed. Yesterday's low held its test as support until Europe's opens triggered another downleg that probed Tuesday's late low by 4 points. Now a bounce is testing yesterday's low as resistance. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The decline is free to resume and the gap back up to yesterday's close doesn't require being filled. But it can be an attraction if the probe under yesterday's low is isolated to the overnight by opening high enough. Otherwise, if the 2846.00-2851.00 next lower target were met today, then closing back above 2853.00 and 2861.00 can start to suggest at least that this downleg is done. Expending energy just to avoid testing 2846.00-2851.00 would make its eventual test less capable of holding. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2868.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2869.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2873.50 at 10:15 would be likely at least to trigger the 2876.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2879.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Next major target being exceeded, too. Potential for isolating the probe under prior lows to the overnight had disappeared well before the open. One more bounce up to this morning's 2869.75 bias-down target had reversed down to fresh lows at 2852.00. Being a fresh trend low, coming to within 4 ticks of the 2846.00-2851.00 target area could have been credible for launching a corrective rally. But the bounce's 2859.00-2861.00 limit was barely touched during the open before reversing down sharply to fresh lows attacking 2843.00. Choppy flat-to-lower ranging around 2846.00-2851.00 ignored RSIs diverging positively and resolved down instead. The next lower objective is 2833.00, just another 4 points lower from 2837.00. Back above 2843.75 (being tested now) could trigger a bigger corrective bounce, perhaps to the 2846.00-2851.00 range's upper-end. Extending down under 2833.00 would next target 2813.00-2819.00.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2852.50 2852.50 ...would target 2859.25 2859.25 Bias-down: under 2842.75 2843.00 ...would target 2835.50 2835.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Live by China trade headlines, die by China trade headlines? The noon hour was greeted by a test of the 2846.00-2851.00 area's lower-end. It was also greeted by a Trump presser of sorts. And he quickly started speaking of higher hopes for a China trade deal. A 30-point rally developed within a half-hour up to 2874.75.. A 30-point rally, yet the market remains in negative territory. It could get less negative, either retesting the high up to 2877.00 (being tested now) or probing it up to 2881.00. A bigger recovery is possible, but not likely. The China trade headline reaction is likely to be retraced eventually. The pattern suggests a retest of the noon hour high must come first, but back under 2863.50 at any time would start to signal that momentum has reversed down. The next lower target is 2933.00 and then 2813.00-2819.00. Having tested 2846.00-2851.00 as support, closing back above 2861.00 would suggest that a bigger corrective bounce is underway -- probably to 2892.00-2894.00. But the bigger picture decline would still be likely to resume.

Gapping down from 2880.00 to 2856.00, probing the two prior sessions' lows, already had expended a great deal of selling pressure. Falling further to test and retest 2837.00 stopped short of a likely objective at 2833.00 which would have led to 2813.00-2819.00. Trump made China trade comments as the noon hour ended, helping to launch a 30-point rally to 2875.00. Still well into negative territory. 2875.00 held tests as resistance, interrupted by two afternoon dips, the second one touching 2859.00 where the open's sellers had retaken control. But that was too shallow to represent defensive posturing ahead of midnight's planned tariff hike. Nevertheless, the balance of the session firmed back to the upper-end of its range. A favorable price reaction would be justified by any favorable overnight developments -- except for actually reaching a China trade deal. A likely resistance to test would be 2892.00-2894.00. But Thursday's pattern wasn't accumulative, so any further bouncing would likely be only temporary. A negative reaction to hiking tariffs as planned would at least target a retest of Thursday's lows. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2880.50 2880.50 ...would target 2888.00 2888.00 Bias-down: under 2864.00 2864.25 ...would target 2857.00 2857.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.