Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Gapping down Friday 11-13 points to 2860.00 bounced momentarily at the open up to 2867.00, but the balance of the morning fell to fresh lows at 2826.00. The drop's last couple of minutes plunged 12 points to probe both the minimum structural and calculable objectives at 2837.00 and 2833.00. Capitulating while also fulfilling selling pressure isn't necessarily a buy signal -- in fact, the consolidation that followed was likelier to break lower. But the consolidation's 2839.75 inflection buy signal triggered first, thanks to a favorable China trade headline. Two days of impending illiquidity can exacerbate normal behaviors, and the usual knee-jerk reaction became a relentless rally into the last half-hour. Both the minimum structural and calculable objectives at the 2889.00 overnight high and 2892.00-2894.00 were fulfilled up to 2893.00. The last half-hour dipped back down to 2874.00. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's 26-29 point gap down immediately reflected the "lack of progress" or of any encouraging tweets on the China trade front. The balance of the night has trended down relentlessly, including a brief 14-point collapse attacking 2844.00 through through Europe's opens. Its reaction attacking 2855.00 has started slipping again TO 2847.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Friday afternoon's rally was likely only temporary, for a variety of reasons. The morning's bias environment had ranged exclusively under prior lows to form an anchor that was likely to be retested. Simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at Friday's 2826.00 low requires an eventual retest retest. And the afternoon's reversal up was exacerbated by Friday Factors, i.e. the weekend's impending illiquidity, to "refuel sellers." Greeting Sunday open with reinforcements already in rally mode wasn't likely without a meaningful catalyst, but it got the opposite. Now Monday's open is indicated to be so low that a meaningful catalyst would encounter a lot of resistance before reversing the trend up. So, the question being addressed this morning is whether Friday's recovery attempt is being corrected, or resumed. Any upside requires first not renewing the bias-down signal. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 2862.75 would like also exceed the 2871.00 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal, next targeting 2854.50. Exiting the open under 2852.00 would likely also exceed the 2854.50 renewed bias-down target to doubly-renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2844.00.

And deeper targets met. China hit back rhetorically before the open, which accelerated the ongoing decline. Its last bounce had attacked 2855.00 but the drop extended down to 2828.00. Flat-to-lower ranging touched Friday's 2826.00 low pre-open. The next bar surged, ultimately testing 2837.50 by 1 tick. Its recovery would have triggered at least a bigger bounce, if not a bigger recovery attempt. Especially after having neutralized the required retest of oversold RSIs at Friday's low. But resistance held and the decline resumed. The next major objective at 2813.00-2819.00 was tested, thoroughly but for 2 ticks at the low. Oversold RSIs at its low developed during the open so no retest is required. Its reaction up just tested 2828.00, which retraces 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back up to the open's 2837.50 bounce. That's natural resistance, and it is resisting. Its reaction is attacking 2818.00, whose break could resume the decline. Otherwise, attracting reinforcements back above 2828.00 would suggest a bigger corrective bounce underway.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2816.00 2816.75 ...would target 2822.75 2823.50 Bias-down: under 2806.00 2807.00 ...would target 2800.00 2801.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Today's pre-close Market Wrap will begin a half-hour early. The next major objective below at 2813.00-2819.00 was tested this morning, and ultimately probed down to 2802.00 coming out of the noon hour. The 2807.00 bias-down signal was eventually broken in time to trigger late bias-down. The 2802.00 low is also within 4 ticks of this afternoon's bias-down target. Being a new trend extreme, if left unmet, it will NOT become "unfinished business." Meanwhile, it's still an attraction. Meanwhile, back above 2808.50 could launch a significant bounce. It's always nerve-wracking to extend so far so quickly without any meaningful correction. But the latest window failed to reverse when it could have by not triggering bias-down. Nevertheless, I'm willing to give buy signals a benefit of the doubt, but only briefly as the trend otherwise remains down. Otherwise, eExtending down any deeper would next target 2766.00 and 2751.00.

Friday's bounce to 2892.00-2894.00 resistance was likely an overreaction from the 2826.00 low, fueled by Friday Factors. Which gapping down sharply Sunday night started to prove, more so upon retesting Friday's low along with the next lower objective at 2813.00-2819.00 down to 2802.00. The gap back up to Friday's close doesn't require being filled. But closing back above Thursday and Friday's 2837.00 and 2826.00 lows would make the retest likely. Meanwhile, the decline is free to resume. And a steeper pace, since Monday afternoon's bounce from fresh lows tested the prior two sessions' "higher prior lows" as resistance. Closing above or below 2813.00-2819.00 is likely to trend in that direction. Gapping up above 2830.00-2831.00 would be credible for signaling another detour, but the trend meanwhile remains down. The next lower major objectives are 2766.00 and 2751.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2813.00 2813.75 ...would target 2820.00 2820.75 Bias-down: under 2803.50 2804.50 ...would target 2795.00 2796.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.