Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Gapping up through 2930.00-2934.00 Tuesday would have served by proxy for Monday's failure to exploit its afternoon test. Tuesday's opening blip-up to 2939.00 reacted back down immediately and sharply to 2912.50. The morning's 2908.00 bias objective wasn't met until the afternoon's bias-down signal was triggering. The afternoon's 2988.00 bias objective was on the way to Tuesday's 2862.00 cash session close. And that was further exceeded -- much further -- down to 2951.25 where futures settled and then to 2839.25 before the Globex open. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Tuesday night's Globex open blipped-down to 2833.00 and bounced up to 2849.00. But selling still wasn't done, not until a fresh low at 2825.25 where both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverged positively. Its recovery had retraced up to 2860.00 after midnight when choppy price action reacted down to 2846.00 a couple of times. That has now resolved up to test 2874.00, back above all of yesterday's last prints. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) I wouldn't expect even the strongest price action today to put into play 3288.00. Three consecutive sessions just finished testing and retesting 2930.00-2934.00 resistance, where breaking higher would have triggered the upleg. The rally lacked stronger-handed sponsorship at recent highs, but yesterday's reversal may be only an expedition in search of stronger-handed buyers to sponsor a more durable upleg. However deep its reversal, one day of it doesn't yet reverse the trend down until confirmed by a second consecutive session. And probably not without also a cash session close under 2860.00. Its recovery overnight presented resistance. Even now only a single leg is probing higher, and not yet decisively. Opening strongly enough today could still produce at least a temporary bounce. We won't know until knowing the closing levels whether the bear market rally has gotten itself back on-track -- remember, a 2-day old bearish Isolation setup remains in-play. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2877.00 would be likely to trigger the 2869.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2866.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up . Exiting the open under 2850.50 would be likely to trigger the 2856.25 bias-down signal.

One offsetting test already fulfilled. The overnight recovery up to 2877.00 was undone by Fed Chair Powell's remarks. Reacting down through the open fell to 2833.00, and began recovering again. Both bias-down parameters were rejected through the grace period. The offsetting test of the 2869.50 bias-up signal has been met to within 3 ticks. But sellers are trying again. Two sell signals off the low were pierced for only 2 minutes before resuming the recovery. Now another sell signal is being tested at 2853.25, under the 2856.25 bias-down signal during a no-bias environment. Their combination during this window is usually strong support, but now extending down to 2842.50 suggests that the bounce has failed. Back above 2958.00 would give the recovery one more chance to gain traction. Otherwise, entering the noon hour under 2845.00 and 2835.00 could repeat yesterday's late drop today.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2839.25 2833.00 ...would target 2852.00 2845.75 Bias-down: under 2808.75 2802.50 ...would target 2794.25 2788.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

This morning's slide matches yesterday afternoon's. Recovering 2860.00 through any relevant timing window would have suggested that sellers were weaker-handed. A corrective bounce would have been likely, or at least a bottom would start forming. But 2860.00 wasn't probed through any relevant window. And it was probed only for an offsetting test of the morning's 2869.50 bias-up signal to within 3 ticks. Its reaction trended down into the noon hour's low reached 2793.00. Its depth matched yesterday afternoon's drop through the close. And its sponsorship wasn't trying to exit ahead of the close, which was minutes away yesterday and hours away today. The 2802.50 bias-down signal avoided triggering, and price action has only ranged sideways. Stability in the context of a sharp decline is often confused with strength. It is only a consolidation, much likelier to resume the prevailing trend. Back above 2822.00 and 2833.00 would suggest otherwise, but the trend meanwhile remains down and targeting  2877.00  2777.00.

Rallying from the 2825.25 overnight low got up to 2877.00, but slid back down to 2833.00 through Wednesday's open. Holding both bias-down parameters put into play an offsetting test of at least the 2869.50 bias-up signal. Meeting it to within 3 ticks reversed down sharply to the noon hour's 2793.00 low -- matching Tuesday's 77-point collapse. Ranging sideways into the final hour finally broke lower to 2786.00, albeit only momentarily before snapping back up to attack 2820.00 into the close. The only relevant level being tested Wednesday was a prior low, and only momentarily. Holding its test wasn't impressive enough to qualify as even passively bullish. Breaking lower through Thursday's open could serve by proxy as actively bearish. Otherwise, there is no WedEX indication ahead of Friday's expiration. Expiration was likely influential to exacerbate the decline, as the valuation's paradigm shift serves as a catalyst adjust positioning. Passing through the WedEX window can allow a reaction, which opens the door to a rally effort Thursday morning. The nearest relevant landmark above its 2855.00-2860.00. Rallying Thursday morning should begin by gapping up. Similarly, having failed to gain traction for its efforts Wednesday afternoon, immediately extending the decline Thursday should begin by gapping down. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2833.50 2827.25 ...would target 2849.25 2843.00 Bias-down: under 2807.75 2801.50 ...would target 2783.25 2777.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.