Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Rallying from Tuesday night's 2825.25 overnight low got up to 2877.00, but slid back down to 2833.00 through Wednesday's open. Holding both bias-down parameters put into play an offsetting test of at least the 2869.50 bias-up signal. Meeting it to within 3 ticks reversed down sharply to the noon hour's 2793.00 low -- matching Tuesday's 77-point collapse. Ranging sideways into the final hour finally broke lower to 2786.00, albeit only momentarily before snapping back up to attack 2820.00 into the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Volatility has disappeared ahead of this morning's Jobless Claims. Globex initially extended the afternoon's snap back up into the range, attacking 2825.00. Its retest resolved down to attack 2798.00 and the balance of the night has ranged sideways. Relatively narrowly sideways at, around, and slightly under Wednesday's 2813.00 close. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The current downleg into yesterday's low has a similar duration to the two prior pullbacks, so we want to be prepared for a rally effort. Nothing requires a rally effort to resume the bear market rally, or even to persist beyond 1-2 timing windows. The bullish scenario is that expiration's influence has exacerbated an otherwise normal knee-jerk reaction to recent developments, combined with pessimistic defensive posturing ahead of this morning's Jobless Claims report. Fair enough. But the two prior pullbacks resolved bullishly by snapping back up abruptly from having stretched their rubber bands. Instead, yesterday morning's low only ranged narrowly sideways, yesterday afternoon's break lower was reversed only back into the range, where last night's action has remained. Suddenly trending from an extended narrow range is often a false break that reverses more substantially in the opposite direction. A break higher has room up to 2855.00-2860.00 before suggesting something more substantial is underway. Rallying this morning without gapping up would be even likelier to fail. Similarly, probing lower this morning without gapping down would be suspicious unless maintained into the noon hour under relevant support. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 2790.75 would be likely to trigger the 2801.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2811.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2820.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2827.25 bias-up signal.

Monday's bearish Isolation setup being fulfilled. Sideways overnight ranging began breaking lower into Jobless Claims. Its reaction extended the break to touch this morning's 2777.00 bias-down target. That's also the singular numerical representation for retesting the recent upleg's 2771.00-2788.00 origin. So, it's possible that this week's drop has ended or is ending. In fact, post-open follow-through attacked 2760.00, and has reversed back up. The reversal is probing the 2801.50 bias-up signal that is required to define the bias-down window's upper-end if tested. Just a corrective bounce still has room up to 2808.00. Its recovery coming out of the bias environment could begin reversing the intraday trend up, potentially to test 2855.00-2860.00. Resuming today's decline would next target 2747.00-2748.00 or the 2735.00 area.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2817.50 2811.00 ...would target 2831.75 2825.25 Bias-down: under 2787.50 2781.00 ...would target 2772.50 2766.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

And probing yesterday afternoon's highs. Yesterday afternoon's low, the pre-open lower low, and this morning's lower low each recovered back into yesterday afternoon's range. But only now is yesterday afternoon's 2818.00 high being probed above. This afternoon's 2811.00 bias-up signal triggered, and its 2825.25 bias-up target is being probed. Overbought RSIs at its 2833.00 high require its eventual retest, which keeps alive upside momentum to extend the recovery. Closing above yesterday afternoon's highs would at least rob the decline of its momentum. A second consecutive higher close would be needed to signal momentum reversing up. Until either were to occur, the decline could still resume. And resuming the decline would further suggest the bear market rally has ended.

Thursday's 2786.25 open had broken lower from only ranging sideways overnight. Extending down to 2760.25 resolved like Wednesday afternoon's break lower, quickly reacting back up into the range. The bounce extended out of the noon hour to probe Wednesday afternoon's 2818.00 highs up to 2833.00. The last half-hour broke higher again to attack 2854.00 through the close. That ended the multi-session decline's momentum, but no upside traction was gained or reversal signal triggered. Fresh multi-session lows disqualify a session from also signaling a trend's reversal. But ending the decline's momentum would allow a second consecutive higher close Friday to trigger a reversal signal -- simply closing higher is not itself the reversal signal. Similarly, closing lower could trigger a new sell signal. Meeting the objective of Monday's Isolation setup does reinforce a bullish scenario, but it doesn't prevent triggering a new bearish signal. One reason to be suspicious about any recovery potential is that Thursday's opening 15 minutes was exited under Wednesday's low. It's delayed, but that qualifies as an actively bearish WedEX signal. Its relevance is limited to reinforcing any other bearish setups influencing Friday afternoon, and then potentially to anticipating a bearish Monday morning. Friday morning shouldn't extend much higher if the afternoon will have a bearish bias. Anyway, rallying Thursday afternoon without gaining traction for its effort makes Friday morning likelier to gap-and-fill back down. And not gaining traction requires early trending to begin by gapping open if it's reliable. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2854.25 2848.00 ...would target 2866.25 2860.00 Bias-down: under 2837.25 2831.00 ...would target 2827.00 2820.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.