Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET** [**FRIDAY'S PRE-OPEN UPDATE IS TENTATIVE]

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) An overnight drop from 2973.50 down to 2941.50 had firmed into Thursday's open, which quickly peaked at 2973.00 and duplicated the Globex reaction from the same area. The intraday reaction produced a more substantial collapse down to 2933.00 whose reaction was both shallow and delayed enough to disqualify its no-bias trending. Three consecutive timing windows beginning at noon ranged relatively narrowly sideways between 2943.00-2954.00. Last-minute action did give way to attack 2936.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Globex bounced up to attack Thursday afternoon's highs at 2952.50. But that only stretched the rubber band that snapped back down in reaction to collapsing Asian markets.Sliding through Europe's opens tested 2904.00, and its reaction is now attacking 2934.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) PROGRAMMING NOTE: I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS BETWEEN 10:30-NOON ET. Fridays before a three-day holiday weekend are typically thinly traded and vulnerable to sideways ranging. That's still the likelier scenario, but restricted travel might add an unusual twist. Meanwhile, overnight trending and gapping open can still be absorbed through the open, so that intraday price action gradually gravitates back toward the prior day's range, or even back into it. But extending the overnight trending through the morning would be likely if the open's thrust doesn't recover back above a relevant level. That relevant level is probably the 2930.00-2934.00 support that had held Thursday's low, which is now being tested as resistance. The overnight low stopped just 3 points short of its potential to 2885.00-2901.00, and the optimism that avoided probing lower could be penalized by a more thorough test intraday. The actual opening print and the open's resolution could tell us all we'll need to know about this morning's intent, if not also for the day. Friday Factors are as relevant as any Friday, so expect the morning's bias signal to persist through the noon hour, and for the afternoon being vulnerable to trending to its nearest attraction. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 2920.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2927.25 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2933.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2940.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2943.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Back above yesterday's lows. The overnight drop had recovered from 2904.00 to 2946.00 before the 2942.00 open. A couple of dips to lower and lower lows tested 2930.00 support and triggered bias-down. The 2927.25 bias-down target is in-play, already attacked to within 1 point. A detour seems to be underway. A bounce just overlapped the 2940.00 bias-down signal by 2 points, but not until 10:30, already too late to invalidate the bias-down signal. Back under 2935.00 should signal the drop has resumed. Meanwhile, a buy signal at 2940.00 is being tested. I'm treating it as resistance for being too late to reverse the bias-down. But a bigger recovery would get a benefit of the doubt by extending above 2945.00, albeit still temporary for being within the context of no-bias trending.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2953.00 2948.00 ...would target 2965.25 2960.25 Bias-down: under 2930.25 2925.25 ...would target 2916.00 2911.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Typical Friday afternoon slowdown. The post-open range shouldn't be surprising. Overnight trending had recovered back above yesterday's lows, which held several tests this morning as support. Just holding its test through the open made downtrending dependent on it being a bias-down environment. It's 2927.25 bias-down target had been met already to within 4 ticks, so it doesn't become "unfinished business." Sellers weren't marginalized, but buyers haven't exploited their hesitation. The noon hour did bounce, or at least firm more aggressively to attack pre-open highs up to 2944.50. But this afternoon is now a no-bias environment. There's plenty of room to fluctuate either way between its 2920.75-2948.00 bias signals, but no requirement. Being a Friday, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour's 2943.00 highs would be likely to ticking higher relentlessly into the close. Similarly, exiting the bias environment deeper into this morning's range -- under the 2935.00 area -- would be vulnerable to trending down into the weekend.

Thursday afternoon's extended narrow range left it to Globex for extending the morning's 40-point drop from 2970.00. Overnight lows tested 2904.00, but opened unchanged from Thursday's 2941.50/2944.00 closes. The bias environment fluctuated around Thursday's low, itself a test of 2930.00-2934.00 support. Trending up out of the bias window extended higher through the close up to 2957.50. An often reliable Friday afternoon setup inserted a disappointing head-fake before ultimately fulfilling its objective. When noon hour highs are the session highs (highlighted green on the nearby chart), then exiting the bias environment above them is likely to tick higher relentlessly into the close. A buy signal positioned under the afternoon highs never attracted reinforcements, and also launched an otherwise convincing detour down. But the next buy signal was very rewarding, notwithstanding the interim penalty for the earlier trigger. There was no bullish reason for 2930.00-2934.00's retest after already having held its test Thursday. Being a Friday can dismiss the test, but also dismiss that it held. The tie breaker for whether its test intends to resolve bullishly is not to delay extending higher coming out of the weekend. US markets are closed Monday, so a further delay could be dismissed, too. Meanwhile, no "unfinished business" would be left outstanding by simply collapsing through 2930.00-2934.00 support, which has been thoroughly chipped away. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND... HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY!

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2969.50 2964.50 ...would target 2980.50 2975.50 Bias-down: under 2944.25 2939.25 ...would target 2926.25 2921.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.