Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday's open gapped up 20-25 points at Tuesday's open, but more importantly recovered Monday afternoon's 2757.00 highs. That followed Monday's downtrend into its 2728.75 low, which had qualified as downtrending into the close, and formed a "session-long rally." Only the position-squaring window failed to probe its prior timing window's 2797.50 high, but a late surge to 2805.50 compensated for the delay. Overnight action's new info... The late surge waited for the Globex open to spike up another 7-8 points to 2813.50. That was the first minute, and it ended as abruptly. Sideways ranging through midnight briefly tagged 2815.00, reacting back down to 2806.00 into Europe's opens. Several minutes later a surge emerged that probed the prior high, and its consolidation has broken higher to attack 2825.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) I had listed several independent elements of optimism Tuesday afternoon. The late surge is added to the list, and now also the overnight rally. Still, no matter how excessive, the optimism is likely to expand since "session-long" setups like yesterday tend to extend the next morning -- to whatever degree and duration, whether maintained or reversed down. We'll treat the open like yesterday's session-long rally setup, and monitor the resistance it tests. Sponsorship has expressed so much sentiment and expended so much energy to have become more vulnerable to reversing. Its bubble could be popped by reacting down from resistance like 2824.50-2826.00 or 2830.50-2833.00 (especially if the reaction down also retraces a lower resistance as support, like 2813.00-2817.00) through the open. Otherwise, the rally would next target 2830.50-2833.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2817.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2815.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2811.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2807.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

But post-open action has trended straight down. The overnight high had barely pierced "higher prior lows" at 2824.50-2826.00. Touching that range post-open and exceeding it would have extended, but reacting down from its post-open test would have been bearish. In other words, similar to yesterday's "session-long rally" setup. A dip down to 2810.50 changed the relevant test to 2813.00-2817.00, if that. Actually, it was that, as a pre-open bounce greeted the open at 2821.75. Post-open action immediately reversed down, and has continued extending down, now to 2801.00 back under yesterday's close. Meanwhile, the 2807.50 bias-up signal triggered. The post-open drop's probe back under it was 1 minute too late to invalidate the bias-up signal. Retracing 2807.50 is required, but the 1-minute tardiness of invalidating it doesn't undermine sellers for having ended yesterday's rally. A bounce to 2807.50 (preferably to 2813.00) would help to neutralize any upside attraction before retracing yesterday's rally.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2818.50 2819.00 ...would target 2825.50 2826.00 Bias-down: under 2809.25 2810.00 ...would target 2801.75 2802.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

More optimism ahead of Beige Book. The 2813.00-2817.00 range became key at the open, and it failed to hold as support. The consequences were powerful enough to push price 6-7 points under the morning's 2807.50 bias-up signal during a bias-up environment.

Of course, being no-bias trending, at least 2807.50 required being retraced, and preferably also 2813.00. Actually, 2817.00 was recovered. But 2813.00-2817.00 avoided being recovered again going into noon.

Neither rejection of 2813.00-2817.00 was decisive, so resuming the rally remains possible. In fact, this afternoon's 2818.00 bias-up signal triggered. Its 2826.00 target is being attacked now, back to within 1 tick of the 2824.75 overnight high. Just coming to within 3-4 ticks would prevent it from becoming "unfinished business." Meanwhile, back under 2817.50 would start to signal the trend reversing down, regardless of unfinished business outstanding above. Meanwhile, this is a bias-up environment, so extending the rally would next target 2830.50-2833.00.

Extending a "session-long rally" the following day is always likely. Extending 19-20 points higher overnight and gapping up sharply can fulfill that likelihood. At least expending so much energy prematurely can open the door to retracing the rally. Wednesday did that, opening 3 points under its 2824.75 high and reversing down to probe 4 points under Tuesday's 2805.00 close. More important, the open and bias environment exit both rejected probes above 2813.00-2817.00. But not decisively. So, reacting down from the afternoon's fulfilled 2826.00 bias-up target held a test of 2813.00-2817.00 as support. And its reaction rallied to fresh highs at 2828.00 through the close. The next higher target at 2830.50-2833.00 is likely in-play -- only likely, because the break above 2824.50-2826.00 came so late. Thursday's ECB monetary policy statement and Chairman's Q&A is the last major anticipated external catalyst prior to Friday's Employment Situation report. Morning volatility should be greater than the afternoon. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2830.00 2830.50 ...would target 2836.25 2836.75 Bias-down: under 2821.25 2822.00 ...would target 2814.50 2815.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.