Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 06-12-2015

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2113.25
2105.00
...would target 2120.00
2111.75
Bias-down: under 2104.00
2095.75
...would target 2097.50
2089.25
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Thursday''s opening surge to 2106.75 had extended the pre-open firming form a narrow 5-point 2095.00-2100.00 overnight range. That narrow range had begun late Wednesday morning, after spiking up on anti-Grexit headlines. Another headline countered the 24-hour old bullish news, driving price back under 2100.00. The balance of the session ranged sideways narrowly again.

Overnight action''s new info...
A gradual drift to fresh overnight lows greeted Europe''s opens by firming to 2100.00, but resuming the drift touched 2095.00. Reacting up again pierced 2101.00, where Europe''s opens were greeted.

If, then...
A series of lower highs and lower lows since yesterday''s opening high has dropped 12 points. The slope has been shallow, so a lot of selling pressure has been expended without probing a prior low. This is not a buy signal, but it is a basis for expecting a buy signal to be very productive, very quickly. Similarly, nothing prevents extending down further -- but a sell signal is less likely to be productive since so much selling pressure was expended already. Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning''s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2094.25 would be likely to trigger the 2095.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2102.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2095.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2106.50 would be likely to trigger the 2105.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Overnight drop resumes, extends through the open.

S&Ps were trading in lockstep with Europe. Firming to 2100.00 into Europe''s firm opens was rejected to fresh lows at 2095.00 when Europe''s opens stumbled. Their stumbles were recovered, so S&Ps recovered, too, to 2101.00.

But that recovery melted away, to fresh lows testing 2092.00. The open''s 2-point bounce stopped short of triggering a 2094.25 buy signal, and extended down to test 2087.00. Its 6-point reaction up has resolved down 7 points to 2083.50.

The 2089.25 bias-down target wasn''t yet broken by 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. This is still a bias-down environment that need not recover from extending down. But delaying the extension down until after 10:15 is often weak-handed sponsorship, and recovered.

Back above 2088.25 would start to signal the extension''s sponsorship is weak-handed, and that it has been absorbed to reverse back up. Otherwise, the next lower attraction is Wednesday''s 2079.50 opening print.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2101.50
2092.50
...would target 2107.25
2098.50
Bias-down: under 2089.50
2080.75
...would target 2081.50
2072.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday within Thursday''s range bounced back above Thursday''s highs to test the 1.1285 level whose recovery would trigger a fresh highs underway.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Early weakness Friday attacked Thurdsay''s 1175.00 low and bounced back into the range. Momentum still hasn''t signaled its reversal down, targeting 1158.50. But the bounce has clearly lost its traction.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Retesting Thursday''s 15.77 low Friday essentially held, but wasn''t clearly rejected. The pattern is vulnerable to extending, while another bounce into the 16.15-16.35 range first would suggest that fresh lows will recover.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The bounce extended higher Friday to 151-22 before dipping at least 1 point into the afternoon. Closing above 151-16 would now seal a bottom, confirmed above 151-26. Back under 149-22 would target a retest of the 148-18 area.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Friday and probing under the 60.30 pullback limit didn''t extend down intraday. But extending higher should be obvious soon after Monday''s open, if not already Sunday night, or else a deeper pullback would become much likelier.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
.Gapping down Friday to the upper-end of 2.74-2.77 support bounced back up to Wednesday''s 2.82 lows before reversing down to the lower-end of 2.74-2.77 support. Closing any lower would undermine the rally.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2100.50
2091.75
...would target 2107.50
2099.00
Bias-down: under 2089.00
2080.50
...would target 2082.75
2074.00
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.