Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 06-20-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Gapping down a little Friday to 2068.00 extended down a lot to the morning's 2053.25 low. The balance of the session "rallied" to 2065.25 in a series of higher highs and higher lows, albeit never leaving negative territory. The last hour dipped a little and then a lot to eventually touch 2057.75. That was still 2 points too high to consider WedEX.fulfilled its bearish signal. Overnight action's new info... Poll results showed the Brexit "remain" support rising sharply. Sunday night's open gapped up to 2071.00 and extended steadily overnight up to 2087.50. That's back to last Friday's close, which last Monday morning had probed only momentarily before extending the prior week's decline. If, then... Has the rally's corrective phase been exited, or is the overnight rally refueling sellers? The potential rally we discussed this weekend has been triggered by a favorable poll, and not by simply delaying the Brexit vote. Anti-Brexit forces had regained so much ground so quickly, that its sponsors would be foolish to delay the vote. So, the rally gets the best of both worlds. And knows it. Two questions now are whether the rally extends intraday, as the bearish WedEX influence arrives at the open. Trending down from the open should be obvious early, or it won't be relevant. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] The bias-up parameters are far below current ranging. However, exiting the open at 9:45 above 2089.25 would be likely to extend higher this morning. Exiting the open under 2079.50 would be likelier to trend back down.

Overnight rally extends post-open. It could have gone either way. It usually goes the other way. Otherwise, it goes this way. Not every setup has a binary resolution that will trend in one direction, or the other. But often a single-minded, relentless overnight trend will reverse at the open. Not reversing tends instead to extend the trend almost as relentlessly. A third option is very unlikely. This morning's choice was to extend. So, having pulled back already from 2087.50 to 2083.00, post-open action surged through its 2085.25 buy signal to probe a fresh high. And still hovering or extending more than halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, reversing down became very unlikely. Inverting the bearish WedEX was required by noon Friday, so this rally only invalidates it. Higher highs touched 2092.50, taking RSIs overbought. Reacting down is overlapping a 2087.25 sell signal by a couple of ticks. Back above 2089.50 would resume the rally, next targeting 2094.50. Extending higher after this morning will be more difficult as Fed Chair Yellen's Senate testimony tomorrow morning comes into view. Rate hike rhetoric between FOMC meetings suggests the market will be challenged by bearish headlines. That's a difficult proposition to attract new buyers.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2097.50 2088.75 ...would target  2103.00  2094.50 Bias-down: under  2089.00  2080.50 ...would target 2082.00  2073.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Fresh post-open lows coming out of the noon hour. Reacting down from 2092.50 never recovered. The 2084.50 opening print was retested, and held as support through the noon hour. Bouncing up to 2087.00 as the noon hour was ending had an opportunity to retest the highs. But that was short-lived. Reacting down from 2087.00 probed a fresh post-open low -- and the pre-open low, for that matter -- down to 2082.00. The Pound suddenly collapsed simultaneously, so perhaps news is forthcoming on Brexit. Anxiousness ahead of Yellen's testimony tomorrow could also be undermining the rally effort. Regardless, the 2080.50 bias-down signal wasn't touched, let alone triggered. This is a no-bias environment. Probing lower anyway would likely be recovered. Meanwhile, there is more room for noise to test this afternoon's 2088.75 bias-up signal.

Sellers gained traction Monday afternoon after exiting the bias environment under the noon hour's low. Already trading 10 points under the morning's 2092.50 high, attracting new sponsorship wasn't assured. But the 3:10-3:20 window confirmed at 2081.00, and the drop extended down to 2074.75. That's "lower prior highs" from Wednesday's FOMC session -- both before its reaction, and after. And it's natural support. Now that anxiousness ahead of Yellen's Senate testimony has been discounted, another bounce overnight is possible. Early Tuesday may be difficult, with Yellen's remarks being released at 10:00am. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2089.00  2080.50 ...would target  2094.50  2086.00 Bias-down: under  2079.25 2070.75 ...would target  2072.25  2063.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.