Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 06-29-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Extending Monday night's single-minded relentless rally higher became likely by not yet attempting to reject halfway through Tuesday's opening 15 minutes of volatility, Its correction never reversed the trend back down, opening the door to another upleg when the afternoon bias environment began lapsing. Overnight action's new info... Except for dipping initially to 2022.75, another single-minded relentless rally has developed overnight. Most recently, a surge up to 2043.25 tested the resistance of Friday afternoon's last relative high. The surge is now being retraced back down to its 2038.00 origin. If, then... London's FTSE has retraced almost all of its Brexit drop. The gap back to Thursday's close may not yet be filled, but the session's "higher prior lows" have been tested. Its natural resistance coincides with peak liquidity, when strong hands position for the weekend's illiquidity -- which has more relevance ahead of the three-day US holiday weekend. Catalysts for at least attempting another downleg are growing, which is to say that more and more bearish catalysts have been ignored since Monday's low. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2039.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2041.25 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2032.00 would be likely to trigger the 2034.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2031.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

US market follows overseas lead higher. Being greeted similarly to yesterday, this morning's open was likely to resolve differently. Whichever the direction, it should include immediate post-open aggression. The open spiked up several points to fresh highs testing 2047.00. Its 5-point reaction down to 2042.25 was probably due to news that a JFK terminal was being evacuated. Absorbing the news quickly recovered to the opening high. And that eventually broke higher to now test 2052.50. Overbought RSIs make any pullback likely to recover. The next higher objective above 2050.50 is 2055.50, with a potential obstacle at 2053.50. This morning's bias environment's higher and higher highs already differs from yesterday, which only trended back down. Sellers aren't necessarily marginalized this afternoon, which is actually a little likelier to range sideways than to retrace -- and least likely to extend the rally. Pullbacks meanwhile have room down to 2046.50 or 2044.50 before suggesting momentum is already reversing down.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2067.5  2058.75 ...would target  2073.75  2065.00 Bias-down: under  2058.50 2049.75 ...would target  2052.25  2043.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Consolidating this morning's rally. Resistance at 2053.50 was only a temporary obstacle before extending to the next higher objective at 2055.50. Its resistance was limited to a brief 2-point reaction down. The rally easily extnded into a noon hour peak attacking 2060.00. Dipping to 2054.00 prevented the afternoon's 2058.75 bias-up signal from triggering. The no-bias environment is ranging narrowly. Resuming this morning's rally is this afternoon's least likely resolution. Just hovering at the highs is likelier, or else trending back down through the 2044.00 open. If trending up is least likely, then trending up would likely be done very aggressively. Fading a fresh high would be credible, but be sure not to get caught short if the high isn't quickly rejected.

Wednesday's rally came within 3 ticks of Friday morning's post-open bounce high at 2064.75. Intraday patterns had independently targeted just 1 tick higher. The futures close probed  both up to 2067.25. That's natural resistance. That's 85 points off of Monday morning (and afternoon) 1981.50 lows. It's also a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the drop from Thursday's 2019.50 post-close high. That's natural resistance. The rally is vulnerable to at least a corrective dip. Just add that vulnerability to the list of potentially bearish catalysts ignored this since Monday's close. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2073.50 2065.00 ...would target  2079.50  2071.00 Bias-down: under  2066.00  2057.50 ...would target 2059.50  2051.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.