Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 07-28-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Sunday night''s slide extended down to fresh lows at 2056.50 through Monday''s open. Recovering back above the 2063.50 opening print to attack 2070.00 was retraced back to the morning''s low. A last-minute surge recovered 2063.50 through the close, extending higher to 2065.00.

Overnight action''s new info...
Monday''s last-minute surge firmed further to attack 2067.00 but dipped back to 2063.50 while China''s crash resumed. Then it un-resumed, encouraging a bigger bounce that extended to 2077.00. Ranging flat-to-higher has held 2071.00 as support, while briefly probing fresh highs above 2078.00.

If, then...
Since yesterday afternoon''s sellers didn''t gain, dipping only between timing windows, the decline became vulnerable to correcting. Gapping up too shallowly would produce only a brief correction that would soon resume trending down to the 2051.00 target in-play. But gapping up well into Friday afternoon''s 2070.00-2077.00 range could form a longer-lasting Island reversal. Overnight action has retraced that range, and can now either sustain it to begin a multi-session corrective bounce. Maintaining the gap up wouldn''t necessarily extend much higher yet this morning. Not maintaining the gap could become a massive "outside day" that could fulfill the lower target.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2077.00 would be likely also exceed the 2073.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2080.50. Exiting the open under 2071.25 would be unlikely to renew the bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2065.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2067.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Overnight rally leaves no buying pressure to defend the open.

The pre-open dip back down to 2071.00 wasted no time after the open extending down much deeper to 2063.00. Probing back into the potential Island Reversal pattern disqualified it. But that wasn''t proof of momentum reversing down, not yet. Just a growing likelihood.

Reacting up to 2069.25 was resolved down to a fresh low at 2061.50. Along the way, failing to recover the 2067.50 bias-up signal has put into play an offsetting test of the 2060.00 bias-down signal.

Post-open action came within 3 ticks of the 2073.00 bias-up target, which was probed considerably overnight. This creates potential for an offsetting test of the 2054.50 bias-down target, too. But not a requirement.

Fresh lows after 10:15 make it more difficult to invalidate the objective below. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above its 2067.50 bias-up signal won''t suffice. So, this current bounce testing is likely to fail. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment above the open''s 2072.25 high can still invalidate the bias-down signal''s attraction.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2084.00
2077.00
...would target 2088.75
2082.00
Bias-down: under 2077.75
2071.00
...would target 2072.00
2065.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday''s test of 1.1075/1.1120 resistance was gapped down Tuesday, testing 1.1030 whose break would target 1.0910 and possibly fresh lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness didn''t extend down Tuesday, but neither was it recovered. At least an attack on recent lows is still needed before a more substantial rally leg triggered above 1105.00 would be very credible.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday''s weakness might have been sufficient to stretch the rubber band deeply enough to launch a more substantial rally effort, which would be triggered back above 14.75.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday''s reaction down from fulfilling the 155-26 target resolved in gapping down Tuesday, but the gap back up to Monday''s 155-08 close should still be filled before a more substantial downleg would be credible.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight attacking 47.00 were recovered into positive territory before Tuesday''s open. That failed to extend through 48.25, which was the decline''s last target, or back above 49.25 which would start to signal a rally is underway.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming early Tuesday from Monday''s test of 2.77 support was retraced entirely back to Monday''s close, but not into negative territory. Closing above 2.88 would signal the consolidation had ended and a new rally leg is underway.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2098.50
2091.50
...would target 2103.25
2096.50
Bias-down: under 2087.25
2080.50
...would target 2080.75
2073.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.