Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Sellers didn't rush to exploit Wednesday having neutralized all remaining unfinished business, and their effort didn't succeed. Thursday's 3365.00 open was within the relatively narrow overnight range, and quickly recovered to attack Wednesday's highs. The noon hour exit blipped-up to 3382.00 within 1 tick of Wednesday's late blip-up, and reversed down even more sharply to 3357.50. The final hour ranged flat-to-higher up to 3372.50, still within Wednesday's range. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Apparently, my labeling yesterday's retest of Wednesday's highs as a "last gasp" was wrong. Bouncing through the close soon extended up to 3378.00, consolidating through midnight back down to 3370.00. Rallying again up to 3380.50 to just under yesterday's highs seems to be the actual last gasp. Europe's opens triggered a 90-minute slide down to 3350.00. Its consolidation under yesterday's lows has now bounced back up to 3361.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Already resolving down does help to confirm that yesterday's retest of Wednesday's 3379.00 pivotal high -- and now also the overnight retest -- was distribution. Fresh lows overnight also help to confirm suspicions that yesterday afternoon's sellers had gained traction for their effort, especially combined with their failure to exploit the proximity to new highs. But I would still like confirmation from trending down through the open, or at least not trending up through it. Friday Factors may yet absorb the overnight trend, if only a morning bounce or a recovery from the ~3340.00 gap-to-gap landmark. But exiting the open under overnight highs would put a big burden or proof on buyers. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 33582.5 would be likely to trigger the 3360.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 3366.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Overnight is corrected up to unchanged. The 3350.00 overnight low's reaction had recovered up to 3370.00. Dipping through the open attacked 3358.00 and now 3370.00 was attacked for the first time post-open. Meanwhile, the 3360.25 bias-down signal held tests to avoid triggering. This is a no-bias environment, putting into play an offsetting test of its 3377.00 bias-up signal. The post-open attack on 3370.00 is also above the pre-10:15 high, helping to confirm the bias. None of which has yet produced more than a brief probe into positive territory. And none of which is preventing a reaction down to 3363.00 low. Meanwhile, back above 3366.00-3368.00 would start to signal the bounce has resumed.

FRI P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3374.00 signal would target 3384.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3363.75 signal would target 3351.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3379.25 3374.00 ...would target 3389.50 3384.25 Bias-down: under 3369.00 3363.75 ...would target 3356.75 3351.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Delay is not strength. The recovery from overnight lows had pulled back into the open, and then resumed through the morning. But not by much. Probing the 3370.00 pre-open high up attacked 3373.00 before noon. Ranging sideways since then has been supported naturally by unchanged at yesterday's 3368.00 cash session close. Not exactly terminal velocity. Resistance at this afternoon's 3374.00 bias-up signal might be probed enough to neutralize unfinished business at this morning's 3377.00 bias objective. Its timing and reaction might behave like a rubber band snapping back down through the close. Just breaking back under 3366.00 would start to suggest momentum is already reversing down. Without yet gaining upside traction or a position of strength, Friday Factors could exacerbate a late dip to repeat last night's collapse.

A 30-point overnight collapse down to 3350.00 had demonstrated the vulnerability of no unfinished business above. Its recovery struggled to maintain positive territory above the 3368.00 prior close. The pre-open bounce reacted down from 3370.00, the noon hour attacked 3373.00, and the afternoon got to 3373.50. The afternoon slid to fresh post-open lows at 3356.00, where a last-minute blip-up to 3368.00 reacted down once again. Friday created the first new unfinished business in three days, by leaving outstanding the morning's 3377.00 bias objective. It can be neutralized overnight to within 3-6 ticks. The rally's prevailing uptrend, albeit stalled, remains intact. Closing within the morning range's orbit makes its unfinished business likelier to be retested sooner rather than later. Thursday night's collapse was the week's first overnight slide. The week's last four afternoon's each slid to one extent or another, mostly sharply. Not Monday, which slid sharply in the morning, and recovered intraday. None of the afternoon slides recovered intraday, and two have challenged prior lows. Even with the addition of Friday's newly-created unfinished business, the rally remains desperately in need of anything that resumes its momentum -- and highly vulnerable to reversing momentum down. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3272.50 signal would target 3284.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3259.50 signal would target 3244.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3277.75 3272.50 ...would target 3289.50 3284.25 Bias-down: under 3264.75 3259.50 ...would target 3259.25 3244.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.