Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Probing new highs overnight up to 3556.25 was corrected through Wednesday's open down to 3533.75. The Opening thrust setup contained sellers, but the balance of the morning only ranged choppily flat-to-higher. Dodging a reversal attempt at the bias environment exit was rewarded by trending up through the Position-squaring window to 3587.00. Bullish PM Traction was formed along the way. Last-minute weakness held 3576.00 into the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Choppy ranging has trended flat-to-lower, retracing all of yesterday's last 90-minute rally. Not before bouncing back to within 2 ticks of the high up to 3586.50. Its reversal attacked 3567.00 into Europe's opens, where a 17-point bounce is now also reversed to fresh lows at 3563.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Reversal, or pullback? Overnight weakness has cycled lower, but isn't necessarily trending. And overnight weakness has been persistent, but only within the boundaries of the latest intraday timing window. Coming to within 6 points of yesterday afternoon's 3557.50 low risks gapping down under it to form a bearish session-long decline. This would conflict with yesterday afternoon's bullish PM Traction setup that suggests this morning's bias environment will trend up. The bullish setup also requires not trending down through the open. Meanwhile a bullish streak setup suggests a higher close today because yesterday closed higher after already fulfilling a higher close requirement on Tuesday. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3570.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 3577.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Borderline session-long decline. The open was ultimately greeted at yesterday afternoon's 3557.50 low. But gapping down to it and exiting the open at 9:45 just under it still spent the opening 15 minutes fluctuating around it. The bearish session-long decline setup wasn't decisive, regardless of the significant follow-through since then. Trending down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility at least invalidated yesterday's PM Traction setup. It also invalidates the streak setup. The bias-down is renewed, and already extended down to 3502.75. RSIs are continually oversold at each low, but the next lower target at 3503.00 is being fulfilled. All of which is a test of Tuesday morning's 3511.00 lower prior highs. We'll monitor timing windows for behaviors that might confirm a session-long decline sentiment is active. The template could establish a very predictable afternoon.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3499.25 signal would target 3519.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3466.00 signal would target 3450.50 NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3501.25 3499.25 ...would target 3521.00 3519.00 Bias-down: under 3467.75 3466.00 ...would target 3552.25 3450.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Shifting into overdrive? This morning's collapse from its 3558.00 open down to 3451.00. A 38.2.{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement contained a bounce into the bias environment's exit up to 3493.00. Trending back down through the noon hour attacked 3441.00, down sharply from yesterday's late 3587.00 high. Yesterday was also the first test of the 261.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} extension from June's complex Ascending Triangle at 3556.00. A second consecutive close above 3556.00 would confirm its break. Currently 100 points below it, its recovery through today's close seems unlikely.

One path higher is the session-long decline (yes, it's counter-intuitive). Each timing window of the setup probes its prior timing window's low, with one exception. So far today, each timing window has probed its prior timing window's low, with one exception: This afternoon's bias environment.

The window is within lapses at 2:30-3:00. A fresh session low then would make the final hour unlikely to extend down. And that would be vulnerable to reversing up -- "short-squeeze" comes to mind.

Otherwise, outlasting the bias window without a new low would make the final hour much likelier to extend the decline. Still a high-probability setup, but more likely leading to the retracement of June's triangle.

Wednesday had closed well above the 3556.25 261.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} target from June's complex Ascending Triangle, probing it up to 3587.00. Ranging choppily flat-to-lower overnight greeted Thursday's open at Wednesday afternoon's 3557.50, barely forming a session-long decline setup. Collapsing through the morning down to 3450.50 ultimately extended down to fresh lows at 3424.50 as the Proxy Window opened. The balance of the session retraced the afternoon's earlier highs back up to 3467.00. One intraday timing window usually fails to probe its prior timing window's low during a session-long decline. Finally avoiding a fresh low during the afternoon bias environment offered high probability for probing lower during the final hour. Thursday's late reaction up expended a lot of buying pressure only to retrace the afternoon's 3467.00 highs. The alternative to gapping up from this setup is to gap down to fresh lows under 3424.50. Session-long trending sessions usually qualify as PM Traction, likely to produce downtrending during the next morning's bias environment. Trending up through Thursday's open would negate this influence. Thursday's decline may have been exacerbated by a perfect storm: Already gapping down from new highs, with Friday's Employment Situation report, and then the 3-day weekend's illiquidity looming. But not yet reversing up out of Friday's noon hour would be vulnerable to extending down sharply into the weekend. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above PRICE signal would target PRICE. BIAS-DOWN: under PRICE signal would target PRICE. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3467.75 3466.00 ...would target 3489.75 3488.00 Bias-down: under 3444.50 3443.00 ...would target 3429.00 3427.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE