Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 09-17-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday morning's noN-bias environment extended higher nonetheless, lifting off from the 1970.00 area through its 1977.00 target. The afternoon fulfilled potential to 1985.00 up to 1987.00. The close triggered a bullish WedEX. But buyers didn't gain traction for the effort -- in fact, the bias environment exit was under the noon hour's low. A post-close surge touched 1989.00. Overnight action's new info... Choppy flat-to-lower ranging has worked its way down to 1981.00 That slightly overlaps the highs of both yesterday morning's bias environments, while dipping under the noon hour's 1983.50 highs. If, then... The rally satisfied 1977.00 and 1985.00 targets yesterday. Not in the same timing window, and not without a corrective dip between them, but in the same session anyway. So much buying pressure satisfied so recently should naturally devolve into a pullback, even in the most bullish scenario. Anxiousness ahead of FOMC statements can cause a defensive pullback in a hesitating environment. So, it might seem a likely catalyst to profit-taking when there are such great profits to take. Perhaps. But yesterday's targets were less a product of fulfilling previous optimism, and more of position-jockeying ahead of expiration. No doubt, the recovery is extended, but it's vulnerable to becoming more extended. Delaying a logical pullback much past the open could spark a counter-intuitive upleg into noon. I'll be prepared for a morning pullback if that's indicated, but the market seems intent upon greeting this afternoon's FOMC events optimistically. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1985.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1988.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 1989.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 1978.00 would be likely to trigger the 1979.50 bias-down signal.

Post-open ranging not getting any takers. Perhaps the prior two days' pattern will repeat again today. They began trending up after a no-bias or noN-bias had been signaled. And their delay was compensated by trending up sharply. Now this morning's open has avoided triggering a bias, firming from 1980.50 up to 1986.50, centered around yesterday's 1984.50 cash session close. Late trending at all would still comply with the pattern of late trending -- it can be downward and not necessarily up. But trending isn't necessary at all, paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of this afternoon's FOMC events.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1998.50 1988.25 ...would target  1996.25  1995.00 Bias-down: under  1091.00  1980.75 ...would target  1985.50  1975.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Gradual firming has become obvious rally. This morning's First Trade blog post pointed out the market's seeming desire to greet this afternoon's FOMC events optimistically. In fact, after the morning inched slightly higher and slightly higher from 1981.00 to 1986.00 and then to 1988.00, the noon hour's exit has surged up to 1994.00. So, this afternoon's 1988.25 bias-up has triggered, and its 1995.00 bias-up target is in-play. That's 1 point from the rally's next higher objective above yesterday's 1977.00 and 1985.00 targets at 1996.00. Where the rally into yesterday's high was probably more option expiration mechanics than optimistic sentiment, today's extension can become extended more easily. Don't forget that there's the 2:00pm policy statement, and then the 2:30 Q&A with Yellen.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) With no excuse for further delaying the rally's resumption, Thursday's open gapped up to the range's upper-end and the session extended higher. It eventually surged in reaction to the FOMC non-decision, fulfilling the requirement for a third higher close. Momentum remains intact so long as 1.1365 now holds as support. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday's low utilized all but 20 cents of room for a pullback to 1114.50 before being likely to resume the rally. The FOMC reaction did spike up to test 1131.00, now requiring pullbacks to hold 1126.00 as support. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Initially dipping Thursday didn't threaten the 14.65 pullback limit before reacting up sharply to the FOMC statement, testing 15.25. Pullbacks must now hold 15.10 to maintain the rally. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Already having fulfilled its third lower close Wednesday, Thursday eventually firmed ahead of the afternoon's FOMC events. Then it surged and extend higher to test 153-16. Since a fresh low was avoided intraday, closing above 152-30 allows a bigger rally to get underway. Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) No matter the margin by which Wednesday's gap up extended through 46.00, lacking a second consecutive higher close Thursday could be very bearish. Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Greeting Thursday's EIA report while attacking the ongoing channel's lower-end wasn't a position of weakness, but it wasn't enough to prevent a knee-jerk reaction to fresh lows. That knee-jerk reaction recovered back up into the range, potentially forming a bottom -- at least, making any initial firming Friday likely to extend higher, but requiring a close above 2.68-2.70 to reverse the trend up.

FOMC policy statements are reliably volatile, even if that means trending more relentlessly than normal. All the more so with quarterly Fed chair Q&A press conferences. That makes them our most reliably opportunistic opportunities, and Thursday's wide-ranging roller coaster did not disappoint. There were plenty of troubling signs that the recovery is running into difficulty, like continually probing relevant objectives without closing decisively above them. Meanwhile, the bearish setup described on Saturday seems to be playing out, rallying to fresh highs and then collapsing, which defines this entire week even before Thursday's two surges each collapsed. Thursday's session resembled a Pivot Reversal, but it wasn't. The setup extends down without delay, and it still could, but there's a likelier scenario to bounce, first. The near-term downside potential gets much, much likelier if Friday's open isn't already rallying back above 1980.50-1981.50. This being a Friday -- quadruple witch, no less -- no morning action should be surprising, not even narrow ranging, before the bullish WedEX's influence becomes relevant. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. This evening, use these links to monitor overnight Globex trading:  XP-Friendly   ||   non-xp ilinc

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1995.50 1985.00 ...would target  2002.25  1992.00 Bias-down: under  1083.25  1973.00 ...would target  1075.50  1965.00 Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.