Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Maybe it was something in the air Monday. A lot of things took longer than planned. For the market, that meant fulfilling the morning's bias objective. Holding a test of its 2987.75 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 3000.50 bias-up signal. The overnight and post-open probes under prior lows weren't repeated, but the morning only chopped sideways. The afternoon finally started a low but steady trend up that eventually neutralized the morning's "unfinished business" at the last hour's high. Its reaction collapsed to 2992.75 -- too late to be strong-handed sponsorship, but too late to recover entirely. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The recovery from Monday's late weak-handed collapse from 3000.50 continued without hesitation to greet the Globex open at 3001.00. A China trade headline soon triggered a spike up to 3012.25, which retraces the rest of Friday afternoon's China trade headline collapse. Backing-and-filling through Europe's opens eventually attacked 3001.00. Bouncing since then is now attacking 3010.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Like yesterday, rallying today requires the open to essentially gap up above 3005.00 and extend. Yesterday's open didn't exploit the attempt the overnight had made. A second failure is possible, but at least a reaction down would now find support at Friday afternoon and Monday's "lower prior highs" just under 3000.00, instead of risking a new downleg. Gapping up can also resume the recovery that had only attacked 3014.00 Friday afternoon before its collapse, and that was targeting the morning's 3019.00 objective (now unfinished business), if not also to at least probe 3025.25. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3011.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3006.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3005.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2999.75 bias-up signal.

Rally effort being challenged by headline, after headline, after headline. Last night's surge up to 3012.25 hasn't been repeated. But neither was it rejected. At least, not yet. Although, not without trying. Backing-and-filling to 3001.00 through the open soon reversed up sharply to 3009.00. Then came 10:00 econ reports, triggering a reaction down. Its reaction resolved down to retest 3001.00 a little deeper. Another attempt to resume the rally had only attacked 3006.00 before a China trade headline (Trump UN speech) triggered an 8-point collapse back to yesterday's 2997.00 futures close. Another big bounce just attacked 3005.00.

Meanwhile, the 2999.75 bias-up signal triggered. Lower lows tested it at 10:30 in time to invalidate it, but held. And it's being tested again now, too late to invalidate bias-up.

A test of the 3006.75 bias-up target remains in-play. Downdrafts can't be prevented, but they remain likely to recover, and likely to resume the rally next targeting 3019.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2988.00 2989.75 ...would target 2996.00 2997.75 Bias-down: under 2979.00 2980.75 ...would target 2970.25 2973.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The biggest headline of them all. Headlines kept interfering with the open's seemingly legitimate rally efforts. Legitimately triggering bias-up, which withstood a late attempt to be invalidated, is bullish -- despite having met its bias-up target already. Trending up into the post-open high at 3009.25 formed an anchor that neither requires nor prevents reacting down, but makes reactions down likelier to recover. Trending down to probe fresh lows down to 2975.00 would have difficulty from such higher levels, with new "lower prior highs" formed Monday afternoon just under 3000.00.

None of which has prevented trending down through the morning and noon hour, to greet the bias environment at 2958.50.

This sort of development tends to precede a revelation or development that truly surprises the market. Surprisingly, no financial, economic, or geopolitical news item seems qualified to reverse an entrenched upside, through its timing window, so substantially and relentlessly. Only one item seems capable -- impeachment. Which is nothing new. But top Democratic members are endorsing an inquiry and weren't previously. Also, an actual meeting is scheduled today. The anxiousness is palpable, so perhaps that's the culprit. But the meeting is scheduled at the close, so its details and decision won't impact today's session. Naturally, sellers are overly discounting a worst-case scenario. Even if we knew with 100{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} certainty that the low is now done, nothing would require reversing up today. A big bounce is possible, but would likely be only temporary, and retraced. It's difficult to trust any bottom at this point without also visiting 2951.00. But I'll assume bounces are temporary until a pattern were to form.

Tuesday afternoon's bias environment was entered at session lows down to 2958.50. A 10-point bounce was retraced entirely back down to the lows, and likely on its way to lower lows when a Trump impeachment tweet (new category of headlines) triggered a 20-point surge to attack 2980.00. But flat or flat-to-lower was the afternoon's likeliest template, and spike was retraced almost entirely as the balance of the session ranged sideways. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction to the post-close impeachment inquiry debate would likely target 2951.00, where a durable low could form. An initially favorable knee-jerk reaction could extend higher without delay. Either setup could extend under 2951.00, which would next target 2916.00. Friday morning's "unfinished business" at 3019.00 remains outstanding, and a likely attraction to any rally. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2972.25 2974.00 ...would target 2980.00 2981.75 Bias-down: under 2961.75 2963.50 ...would target 2953.00 2954.75 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.