Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday night's reactions to favorable China trade headlines drove a rally from 2888.00 low to momentarily touch 2834.00. Mostly the overnight high ranged around the 2917.00 bounce limit. Wednesday morning didn't reject the overnight rally, but its consolidation was resisted by 2917.00. The afternoon ranged narrowly around 2917.00 again, eventually launching a rally up to 2929.50. That only stretched the rubber band to snap back down to 2917.00. Ultimately, the 2917.00 bounce limit held Wednesday's rally, by attracting price back down to it, but not by launching a reaction down... Wait for it... Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Then came another China trade headline, soon after the Globex open. Its reaction plunged through 2917.00 to 2882.00. A contradictory headline triggered a surge back up to 2917.50, followed by more wide swings down to 2886.00 and back up to 2923.00. The double-digit moves entered a relatively narrowly range around 2917.00 before midnight that has persisted since. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The post-close plunge revealed an air pocket back down to Tuesday's lows. They're unlikely to offer any support if retested. Eventually settling into a sideways range might protect against repeating another plunge had the range begun above a prior high. But unchanged has been serving as resistance. Overbought RSI at yesterday afternoon's 2929.50 high could attract a retest where the market would face a significant and ultimate decision, whether to extend and repeat Monday's test of "higher prior lows" at 2957.00-2963.00, or to repeat and extend last night's decline. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2911.00 would be likely to trigger the 2913.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2917.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Almost bias-up renewed. Simultaneously overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at yesterday's 2929.50 high required an eventual retest. It could have been delayed indefinitely by trending down immediately this morning, but last night's plunge(s) stole that thunder. So, retesting yesterday's high was likely next. The 2917.50 open wedged its way higher to 2923.00 when a China trade tweet triggered a surge up to 2933.00, which soon extended to attack 2939.00. The retest of 2929.50 was fulfilled, as were tests of both the 2926.50 and 2933.50 bias-up parameters.

The 2933.50 bias-up target was still being tested at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. This is still a bias-up environment, but is not required to extend any higher. Testing the 2926.50 bias-up signal as support should define the window's lower-end... until the window begins lapsing at 11:30.

Despite already fulfilling its target, the bias-up environment is free to extend higher. Just exiting the bias environment above the 2926.50 bias-up signal (and preferably also above yesterday's 2929.50 high) would put into play 2957.00-2963.00. Meanwhile, back under 2933.50 would start to signal this morning's rally is being retraced -- as all China trade headlines tend to do.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2950.75 2950.50 ...would target 2957.25 2957.00 Bias-down: under 2939.50 2939.50 ...would target 2932.50 2932.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Detour? This morning's retest of yesterday's 2929.50 high was likely because the open was greeted back in its orbit, i.e. overlapping the reaction from 2929.50. The retest's attraction got help from a China trade headline (tweet) that triggered a surge to higher highs attacking 2939.00. Its consolidation launched another upleg to test 2948.00. Pretty impressive for having tested 2882.00 overnight. Back under 2929.50 by noon would have rejected the recovery. More so, recovering 2929.50 through noon has put into play 2957.00-2963.00.

But sellers aren't marginalized in this pattern. There will always be a setup that invalidates 2957.00-2963.00, essentially by putting into play targets below. This afternoon's bias-down signal just tried, although now a test of its 2932.50 bias-down target has reacted up 15 points to 2947.50.

Anything above the 2939.50 bias-down signal is premature, and will require being retraced. That will have to develop into a deeper drop back under 2924.25 to reject this morning's recovery above 2929.50. Otherwise, 2957.00-2963.00 remains in-play.

Despite the overnight 36-point plunge to test 2882.00, Thursday's open was overlapping unchanged from Wednesday's 2918.50 close. That had been the first reaction from Wednesday's 2929.50 high, so Thursday's open was back in its orbit -- and likely to retest its overbought RSIs. A China trade tweet triggered extra buying pressure that eventually tested 2948.00. The afternoon's dip to 2926.00 was recovered to 2939.00-2942.50 through the close. Recovering Wednesday's high through the open was enough to put into play 2957.00-2963.00. The base for launching the rally is not stable, so sellers aren't marginalized and can regain control. They missed two opportunities Thursday, so reversing down now requires exiting Friday's open back under 2922.00. Regardless of its start, reversing down must continue aggressively to be credible -- just drifting lower to a relevant support in this setup would more likely reverse up to resume the rally. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2945.25 2945.00 ...would target 2952.25 2952.00 Bias-down: under 2934.50 2934.50 ...would target 2926.50 2926.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.