Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 10-14-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's gap down held its 1998.00 limit to signal that overnight selling was not bleeding into the cash session. The consequence was to reject both bias-down parameters and put into play both bias-up parameters. The 2016.00 bias-up target was only attacked to within 5 ticks, but it did not become "unfinished business above" since the bias environment was exited back under its 2011.00 bias-up signal. The balance of the session trended back down to fresh lows at 1993.50 support. Potential for extending down to 1988.00 created a compelling hold-short setup. Overnight action's new info... The 1988.00 attraction was soon attacked to within 6 ticks. A 7-point range since then has been centered around 1993.50, which is being overlapped now. If, then... The hold-short for 1988.00 was considered within the context of its test being likely to react up overnight. Not already testing it and reacting up does create room for a lower test, whether by 1 point or by 2-1/2. The setup's template for a pre-open recovery would still be possible -- but keeping to the timetable would require a steeper recovery. Not yet probing fresh overnight lows before opening positive would be more likely to reverse back down. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1993.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 1988.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1987.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above2004.00 would be likely to trigger the 2001.50 bias-up signal.

Sellers refueled by the open's bounce. Not so much "unfinished business below" as the likelihood for testing 1988.00 has made me suspicious of any bounce gaining traction. But not holding 1995.50 resistance made the 2001.50 bias-up signal likely to be tested before its bounce could fail. In fact, the open did recover 1995.50 and its recovery did touch 2001.50. Then the bounce failed. Reacting down into 10:15 triggered no-bias. And having held a test of the bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the bias-down signal was put in-play at... wait for it... 1988.00. Since then, the bias-up signal's rejection has extended down to fresh post-open lows at 1990.25. At least a test of the 1988.00 bias-down signal remains in-play, especially so long as 1995.50 isn't recovered.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2003.25 1995.50 ...would target  2009.75 2002.00 Bias-down: under  1994.75  1987.00 ...would target  1989.75  1982.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Probe of overnight lows is recovered. The open's test of the 2001.50 bias-up signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 1988.00 bias-down signal. The extra detour had created potential for that test also visiting 1985.50. Regardless of how deep, only after probing overnight lows would a rally be credible. In fact, 1988.00 was tested. Quickly. It was too late to invalidate the bias, and too early for the bias to be lapsing already. And RSIs were oversold. So, a lower low tested 1985.50. The bias environment began lapsing back at 1988.00, with RSIs diverging positively. A bounce there worked out better, for awhile, reaching 1998.50. But the 1995.50 bias-up signal wasn't recovered through 1:20, as a reaction down attacked 1991.00. Now we're waiting for the 2:00 Beige Book release. It's not an earth-moving report, but it's still capable of inhibiting price action until it becomes history.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Fresh highs Wednesday probed above the 1.1446 prior high that had preceded the 1.1370 gap which was filled last week. Unless rejected by Thursday's close, the break higher is now targeting 1.1595. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Probing the outstanding 1169.00 target overnight had reacted down to 1160.00, but its retest intraday extended up to 1180.00 intraday. And that extended up to 1187.00 in reaction to the afternoon's Beige Book release. The next higher target at 1195.50 remains in-play so long long as pullbacks now hold 1175.50 as support. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Last week's 16.10 high was tested and retested in the shallowest of ways up to 16.17 Wednesday. Trending any higher should begin by almost literally exploding higher. Any slighter strength would be unlikely to actually trend higher. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Filling the gap above back to 158-23 extended higher intraday to test 159-13, with room up to 159-22 before suggesting more than a corrective bounce was underway. Back under 157-30 would signal momentum reversing down. Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Wednesday's gap down didn't extend lower intraday, but the balance of the session ranged in negative territory. This is "ineffectual pessimism" that requires immediate recovery to avoid trending down sharply Thursday. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Narrow ranging once again failed to exploit that the decline had stopped trending. Thursday's EIA report isn't being greeted from a position of weakness, but the potential for an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down can't be discounted.

Wednesday's cash session ended at 1986.00 much like Tuesday, with a compelling basis for a hold-short. Also like Tuesday's close, the lower objectives still in-play at 1980.25 or 1978.75 have potential for launching a pre-open rally if tested overnight. Unlike Tuesday, sellers gained traction, but not decisively. The bias environment exit and final hour's entry each were barely piercing their prior timing window lows. But buyers certainly weren't making an effort, so lower lows remain likely, but also vulnerable to reacting back up. Meanwhile, Tuesday's break under the Friday-Monday ranging was confirmed by Wednesday's second consecutive lower close. The market is topping, as has been expected in this area. Having entrenched themselves, the reversal's sponsorship may sit back and let one more fresh high trap more buyers. But not already rallying at Thursday's open probably means the decline hasn't waited to resume. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzrksp

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:  XP-Friendly   ||   non-xp ilinc

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2001.25 1993.50 ...would target  2007.25  1999.50 Bias-down: under  1988.00  1980.25 ...would target  1981.50  1973.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.