Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... After printing a "new Globex trend extreme" at 2562.25 just minutes before the open, Wednesday's gap up immediately collapsed. It had become almost an every-other-day occurrence during the prior two weeks. But the origin of Wednesday's gap had all but ensured a collapse would not retake control. In fact, the nearest support stopped sellers upon touching Tuesday's 2557.25 "lower prior highs." The morning's bias-up triggered, and its retest launched a recovery back to within 1 tick of the pre-open high. A late dip to 2558.25 originated too late to extend, and bounced into the close. Both pieces of "unfinished business above" created Wednesday were left outstanding, at 2562.25 and 2563.75. Active bullish WedEX triggered, with potential for an ambush by proxy. Overnight action's new info... Wednesday's last-minute reaction up to 2560.75 was never exceeded. Narrow ranging had slipped back down to Wednesday's late 2558.25 low just after midnight. Consolidating there had started breaking lower just ahead of Europe's opens. Plunging for an hour touched 2542.50. Its 9-point reaction up to 2551.50 has been retraced down to 2544.25. The overnight drop is testing the 2543.00 support that had defined the Employment Situation report's negative reaction as being only temporary. If, then... Did someone say, "ambush"? A shortcoming of Wednesday's active bullish WedEX was the lack of intraday improvement. The final hour's range had overlapped the open, which doesn't reflect buyers gaining traction for their effort. That's irrelevant if not exploited immediately by sellers, in the form of gapping under that session's low, i.e. by proxy. Hello, gap down. And the proxy adjusts the WedEX to a passive bearish influence Friday afternoon and Monday morning. First things, first. The overnight drop is testing the 2543.00 support that had defined the Employment Situation report's reaction. The pivotal low of its test is 2541.50, and touching it would require also touching that Friday's 2539.50 low. Exiting a timing window above 2541.50 after testing 2539.50 could seal a bottom. Regardless of having tested 2539.50, exiting a timing window under 2541.50 would signal the drop is extending to its next lower supports, still 2535.00-2536.00.  P.S. Happy 30th Anniversary of 1987's "Black Monday" market crash. In addition to leaving unfinished business above as an anchor, the crash's anniversary may be today's most bullish factor. It increases pessimism, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2550.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2550.75 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2552.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2556.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Phonetic dictation... okay thank you for that intro from The Little River Band the old me a favor so it is Thursday it's time for Thursday's Morgan to her it's well past time for some action like this we're getting it overnight will see what kind of reverberations it has introduced a butt overnight there had been a little bit of a actually yes I did some pretty relevant developments we knew as of Monday as close as we were coming in to the end that we we're about to resolve this ongoing narrow ranging happened to be biased upward or slanted upward but that it was going to be resolved never got the clear resolution the big problem with with well first of all problem on Monday or on Tuesday that is was the nearo ranging broke out late but it too late to be considered a reliable break out and it needed uptrending yesterday morning which it didn't get it just got a gap up still getting every benefit of the doubt though along the way with a well-defined level or even behavior that would indicate the upside was failing yesterday the problem was that was left out standing was at the Gap up even though we knew because of the context of the pattern resin resolving even though we knew that the that the Gap up would still be vulnerable to collapse if it did collapse and didn't end up that it would be unlikely to be damaging it would be likely to hold the nearest supports and there was potential for those nearest supports to stretch down to 2556 to stretch down 253-553-2550 just touching touching Tuesday's close 5775 one thing that I did was that gave us some indication that sellers were done for the day it wasn't quite the retest of aloe that for instance one week earlier almost one week earlier last Thursday had given where the test and retest of irrelevant level was separated by different timing windows or the employment situation report reaction where it's test of irrelevant level 25 43 and the retest was separated by multiple timing would have so many times when does it was different days but held through a closed so that was one concern but also that this is what just typically forget about it being Wednesday expiration session yesterday this is what it is or can be an issue and that is there's a gap up fresh I just that opening print 25 6150 that is overlapped in the final hour a lot of time if you look at Candlestick patterns for instance we don't need to hear we just need to see the timing window overlap and that was enough to open the door to what I described in yesterday's rap as an ambush there was potential for this pattern to be ambushed the potential was anything that would prove that only overlapping only overlapping yesterday's Gap up instead of closing above itclosing in a timelyweather in three minutes of Cashing close that that would if anything short of that why should say anything short of and now let's go back here sorry so we gapped up got distracted by one of the thing okay wrapped up to 25 6150 went out during the last hour overlapping a half hours it happens but just during the last hour overlapping it instead of closing above it so that left open the trapdoor or an ambush potential by proxy if that session that had that development were immediately rejected at the open the following open this morning's open rejected by opening under and really just gabbing down to and sliding through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have sufficed but opening under that sessions low reject the entirety of the session that contained that failure that failure to extend higher if not if sellers couldn't bring a gap down this morning then by default buyers would have one opportunity to inject in other words think of a wedding think of the Gap up being the groom and the bride saying maybe well if nobody objects but if nobody objects by proxy by producing a gap down under that than by default they're married the Gap up the clothes they indicate momentum extending higher today the Gap is indicating otherwise and I'm assuming we're going to be under them actually already probing under yesterday's low ahead of Europe's open just in the last 30 minutes prior to that you can see where that energy came from so what's going on what is this slide doing let's go back a little bit deeper okay so here's the employment situation report reaction remember that day that we could test 25 43 and not even threatened to reverse the uptrend in fact that held at 2543 to 4150 by the way the important to note there was tested down to 4150 and continued that would all but ensure having to test the actual low too having to test the actual low too and by the way at 4150 and the oldest support through a relevant touch 4150 this morning and at 11:30 then we're going to be testing 35 at that point too but if thatif it can maintain its recovery recovery will still need to eventually return to that low but at least that would Rob sellers of their tracks in the same way that yesterday's Lowe's yesterday's test and retest of that relevant level of that bias up signals test in the morningthat was retested also in the morning Rob sellers of their traction told us at Sellers were done for the day or very likely so much some of the lead to these two setups the employment situation report day the last Thursday and that could Rob sellers of their tracks in and give us a rally for the rest of the day one other point here is that this is of course the next week and so wet X having triggered bullish actively bullet wed x yesterday still because of that session feature that overlap of the open did the final hour undermining me upside momentum but so long as it wasn't rejected at today's open would have default into being bullish would have maintained the bullish signal is apparently being rejected that changes the active the probe will have failed the question though is to what degree that has yet to be answered because if this is that last low prior to producing the new recovering the prioritize 52 basically if 52 is broken through the open which isn't destroyed we're testing 49 right now hit 50 to maintain fifteen minutes of all wed x I have no other history no other recorded history in my notes of that happening so I don't know what to tell you about that other than that it's a pretty big Paradigm Shift regardless of the unfinished business yesterday's officially leave that's not a guiding principle so much as the mornings bias up having held never fulfilled its Target stopped actually almost to point short so that might be the only bullish Factor here except for one other thing and that is this is the anniversary of the 1987 Black Monday crash that heightens people's pessimism it makes them a little more nervous it adds to the selling pressure anniversary fundamental development so from a contrarian perspective it may actually accelerate into today create artificial selling pressure that existed otherwise and has no basis in fact and therefore yet there's no more sellers left but it runs through selling pressure so that everybody suddenly is a buyer or by default whatever activities left at the end of the day to sort of enhance and a bullish signal that we might get a little holes in 43 any questions but not confirmed have recovered back to the cell signal yesterday and recovered really the maximum that we from a corrective balance of this cell signal that was basically Monday sessionPeak there nicely but has extended her overnight to where I placed This Barweather up here this is a newly added line there's a gap there's ire prior Lowe's so that's being tested overnight we can give that a sign that a label as rim for noise for the Euro and still closing back under 118 3118 Boca 11831 1835 closing back under 11830 would still be every bit as barish as anticipated on its first close so I would look for that development if in fact the market were stabilizing Yen carried a little bit lower overnight 8860 basically we testing this prior low basically fulfilling more than fulfilling a minimum of obligation of The Head and Shoulders so regardless of any unfinished business that can take the edge off of sellers Looney that it extended up again to this by signal yesterday still overlapping it the pound has this unfinished business below at the Gap outstanding 138 earea when it's Friday that would be helpful backing and filling to refueling buyers tracking it is all I can say I would raise the limit now 27088 seven gold objective 7750 developing the entirety of the target area overnight before bouncing just need to seal the bottom to 1288 today says gold has completed its back or would say that copper by the way driving test at 3:14 so the very least so long as basically three and a retest of Monday's range would be in play silver which also held didn't have to do anything bouncing overnight still needs to recover it which but just potentially but held lower prioritize left the Gap outstanding above just needs to close back up on 5314 to indicate the rally has resumed is actually testing at here for you open it is resistancecrude oil not extending higher as the dollar Falls stillbut none of the action this week has suggested that the 5265 objective is off the table so as long as and at this stage as long as today's closes back about the d155 close today back about 5155 there would be no excuse going forward for any further delay to popping another point to 5255 close today about 5155 and we should the pattern should hit 5255 into the weekend and this pattern if it closes at a new trend II that's a trend on a Friday probably extends into Monday and finally Natural Gas that 282 alright.

Pre-open bounce reacts down, too. Firming back up to the 2550.75 bias-down target and greeting the open there told us before the open that a bounce to 2553.75 would be a compelling short-entry.In fact, the first 3 minutes spiked up to 2554.75 and the next 3 minutes spiked back down. The first 45 minutes trended back down to attack 2445.00.

Bow a bounce is testing this morning's 2550.75 bias-down target as resistance. Back under 2548.00 would signal the bounce had failed. Otherwise, even a bearish scenario could bounce higher this morning.

A bounce had better do more than that, and for longer, to avoid a more sizable downleg.

Why? Because just as expiration can influence price action, price action can influence expiration. The latter happens less frequently, but it may be happening today. Commitments reflected at the time of Wednesday's close  -- which is the essence of the WedEX setup -- can require reshuffling due to Thursday's sudden plunge. And that can exacerbate the plunge.

Unless the open were to absorb the plunge. Not absorbing the open's plunge would next target 2543.00 and 2535.00-2536.00. Exiting the bias environment under its 2550.75 bias-down target would help to keep alive downside potential. But entering the noon hour back above the 2556.00 bias-down signal would suggest the plunge was absorbed.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2558.25 2556.00 ...would target  2564.50  2562.25 Bias-down: under  2550.50  2548.25 ...would target  2545.25  2543.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Noon hour exited above morning's range. It's still negative territory, 2-3 points under yesterday's 2559.50 cash session close. But that's a 3-4 points above the open's 2553.75-2554.50 peak. We already know the opening peak's relevance, since we stalked it for short-entry. And its reaction was productive, both testing its renewed bias-down target 2546.25 objective and containing the selling pressure to the opening 45 minutes. The morning's bias environment contained no downtrending, seriously undermining sellers. Exiting the noon hour above that entire morning range is signaling that the overnight drop may have been a one-off. Not an anomaly, but possibly a warning shot across the bow. In either case, "unfinished business above" at yesterday's highs may be tested before a durable collapse. Now this afternoon has triggered noN-bias. Its 2556.00 bias-up signal need not define this window's upper-end, and its bias-up target need not be met. But the window is free to extend anyway, which it's trying, currently attacking 2558.00. Only a break back under 2553.75 would suggest another downleg may be underway.

Detour? Refueling? Warning shot across the bow? Thursday's plunge and then its complete recovery have some important implications... Thursday's plunge was all but finished before triggering the morning bias environment signal at 10:15. The balance of the session trended back up. Paradigms shifted quickly: -- After the post-open plunge to 2545.25, the open's 2550.25 print was recovered before the first hour had ended. -- The open's 2554.50 peak was attacked to within 1 tick before the morning's bias environment began lapsing. -- Wednesday's "higher prior lows" were touched early in the afternoon bias environment. -- And the gap back up to Wednesday's 2559.50-2560.00 close was filled by the session's last cash session bar (already attacked to within 3 ticks as the 3:10-3:20 proxy window was ending). Each stage rewarded buyers for having absorbed sellers, and for a building block to produce the next leg's improvement. A couple of shortcomings keep the door open to sellers retaking control, similar to Thursday's gap down by proxy. Also similarly, not gapping down Friday would default to buyers having gained traction for Thursday's effort. One caveat to further upside: Opening enthusiasm of gapping up would again be vulnerable to collapse, especially if Wednesday's 2562.25 and 2563.75 "unfinished business above" were fulfilled. Meanwhile, Wednesday's lows were only being tested as resistance before Thursday's close, and not quite recovered, so the morning's WedEX inversion to passively bearish remains intact. Trending up into the weekend is not at all assured. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2565.75 2563.50 ...would target  2571.00  2569.00 Bias-down: under 2557.75 2555.75 ...would target  2552.25  2550.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.