Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 10-20-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... .Wednesday performed similarly to a session-long rally reaching 2142.50. Each timing window probed the prior timing window's high, with the only exception being the last window, which fell to 2137.50 through the futures close. WedEX didn't trigger as session highs only fluctuated around prior highs (i.e. 2138.00-2139.75). "Unfinished business above" was left outstanding at the afternoon's 2145.50 bias-up target. Overnight action's new info... The Globex open's blip-down to 2136.25 was reversed immediately to begin recovering all but 2 ticks of Wednesday afternoon's pullback from 2142.50. A spike up to 2144.50 probed above Wednesday's high but never extended before being retraced entirely.-- and then some, back down to 2138.00 through Europe's opens. Price has since firmed back up to test 2141.00. If, then... Gapping up and/or probing high enough Thursday could serve by proxy to trigger bullish WedEX, depending on its resolution and other minor elements. Maintaining a gap up above Wednesday's 2142.50 high could trigger an active bullish WedEX. Rejecting an early probe above 2142.50 could trigger a passive bearish WedEX. Gapping down would have to be relatively substantial to be relevant. Regardless of WedEX, there's still potential for at least an intraday probe higher to fulfill the 2145.50 objective. The ECB policy statement and Mario Draghi press conference are just minutes away... First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2143.00 would be likely to trigger the 2141.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2138.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

ECB reaction retraced entirely. Briefly. Mario Draghi never disappoints. His press conferences somehow always have a little something for every opinion, regardless of how polarized. But the retest of yesterday's 2132.25 low that he triggered had not recovered enough to greet the open bullishly. Its retest was likely, and likely to probe lower. And also likely to recover.

The open's bounce attacked 2137.50 and reversed down to fresh lows at 2131.00. RSIs diverged positively on its retest, producing a bounce back to 2137.50, and eventually higher to where the ECB news had been greeted at 2141.25.

Coming to within 3 ticks of this morning's 2141.50 bias-up signal neutralized it from becoming "unfinished business above" if left outstanding, after being put into play by earlier holding the test of this morning's 2133.00 bias-down signal.

Neutralized it, indeed. Its reaction plunged to new lows at 2127.50. Volatility hasn't suffered much without Mario. After violating its 2140.25 pullback limit, a pullback was likely to test 2138.00 and only have potential to 2136.50. With no requirement for the latter, I only sold later. The math still works, because a break lower could be a product of the post-open 2131.00-2141.25 bounce. That's a big measurement for the potential reward to what would still be a relatively low risk parameter. Regardless of the 2133.00 bias-down signal being probed at 10:30, it was also being overlapped. It was not broken in time to invalidate the no-bias environment, regardless of its objective already above neutralized. Whether or not the plunge intends to extend, 2133.00 should be retested at some point. Its recovery could extend, or resume the decline.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2142.50 2136.50 ...would target  2147.50  2141.50 Bias-down: under  2133.75  2127.75 ...would target 2128.00  2122.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Back up to unchanged. Despite ultimately touching 2126.75, a bounce or a recovery was required. Breaking under the 2133.00 bias-down signal at 10:30 was still overlapping 2133.00, which required returning to it at some point -- regardless of the resolution. The bias environment started lapsing back at 2133.00. Surging into the noon hour has extended to within 1 point of the plunge's 2141.25 origin. And now the afternoon's 2136.50 bias-up signal has triggered. Back above 2139.00 would signal the rally had resumed. Meanwhile, the market is still only unchanged at best, and otherwise in negative territory. Two big recoveries from lower and lower probes under yesterday's low is potentially bullish. That potential is stored energy and otherwise useless if not triggered. Entering positive territory should be that trigger. Meanwhile, there's room for a little deeper "backing and filling."  

Absorbing drops is potentially accumulation. And accumulation is potential. It is stored energy, just waiting for its cap to be flipped and its carbonation to explode upward. The cap begins being flipped by probing prior highs. But Thursday's pattern is of lower highs. Rising lows, too -- which only increases the carbonated pressure. The nearest attractions of "unfinished business" is above, at 2141.50 and 2145.50. There's also a likelihood of extending to 2050.00. WedEX missed its chance to entrench that upside Wednesday, and only hovered under resistance. Pessimistically short of resistance, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. But irrelevant until next week if expiration doesn't exploit it. NOTE: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND DUE TO TRAVEL. PLEASE REQUEST CHART ANALYSIS INTRADAY IN THE CHARTROOM. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2145.75 2139.75 ...would target  2151.50 2145.50 Bias-down: under  2136.50  2130.50 ...would target 2130.00  2124.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.