DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A Today's rally might seem an excellent candidate for ranging flat-to-lower. Primarily because resistance was nominal along the way up to neutralizing its objective. That might be compensated by finding significant resistance above it, which is the likeliest scenario. But since the objective was met by a single leg above the bias-up signal, the second likeliest scenario for one more probe higher remains possible. REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND. CHARTROOM WILL BE AVAILABLE AGAIN AT SUNDAY NIGHT'S GLOBEX OPEN. ENJOY THE WEEKEND!
Professional Pre-Open Trading Plan - 7:41 AM
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Day Trading Opening Trends - 10:32 AM
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A bounce retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of that drop, and dipped back down to 2563.50. RSIs diverged positively on the retest and launched a slightly bigger bounce.
Reaction to a favorable Fed headline triggered a surge through the overnight high up to 2572.50. That was done in 3 minutes, but consolidating since then has held at least 3 ticks above the 2569.00 bias-up target. So, this morning's bias signal is renewed.
Renewed bias-up effectively targets a retest of Sunday night's 2577.25 high. One caveat to extending higher is the surge's catalyst being a headline. Renewed bias-up is less reliable anyway, and the bias-up environment is required only to be supported by the 2563.50 bias-up signal if retested.
Back under 2569.00 would threaten a morning retracement, and it's being tested now. But fresh session highs would help to confirm the morning's rally is extending higher, especially if maintained when exiting the bias environment.
Tonight's Day Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM
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Mid-Day Market Thoughts - 1:46 PM
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Its retest was fulfilled during the noon hour up to 2579.25. That pierced this afternoon's bias-up signal by 1 tick, and held it. So, this is now a no-bias environment.
Friday afternoon no-bias environments tend to mean it, especially when a bias signal's test holds. The balance of the bias environment -- and often the balance of the session -- simply ranges flat, if not flat to lower.
Day Trading Summary - 2:57 PM
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Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 5:55 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Pre-open resistance test pushes back to support. Which pushes back, too.
The overnight rally had pierced this morning's 2569.00 bias-up target by 1 tick. Its reaction down through the open touched this morning's 2563.50 bias-up signal.
FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2581.50
2579.00
...would target
2586.75
2584.25
Bias-down: under
2574.00
2571.50
...would target
2568.75
2566.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Only one template says higher, and its clock is ticking.
This morning's renewed bias-up extended. And extended. The renewed bias-up target was essentially Sunday night's 2577.25 "new Globex trend extreme."
Market Wrap was held an hour early today, and I'm away from the screens for the final hour. You can watch the Wrap recording here.
New trend highs up to 2580.75 printed when the afternoon bias environment came within view of lapsing. The actual lapse trended back down under the noon hour's 2578.75 prior high. This setup creates risk of trending down during the final hour.
Trending down into the close just a little could prevent a new trend high close on a Friday. Last Friday's new trend high close still requires another, regardless.
Trending down into the close a lot could also prevent closing above 2563.75 recovery. Confirmed by a second-day consecutive higher close Monday would all but ensure extending to 2590.50. The last close above 2563.75 was not confirmed.
MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2581.25
2579.00
...would target
2586.50
2584.25
Bias-down: under
2573.00
2569.75
...would target
2567.50
2565.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.