Professional Pre-Open Trading Plan - 7:41 AM

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's gap up created the upper-end of a choppy range that would be supported by Wednesday's highs. Its open quickly ran into resistance at 2563.75, which was soon retraced back down to touch Wednesday afternoon's 2557.50 high as support. And so the range was born. A complete recovery blipped-up to 2565.00 momentarily on a headline, but the range sucked price back into it. A last-minute dip to fresh lows at 2555.50 was recovered into the range through the cash session close -- futures extended to within 2 ticks of the open's 2563.75 high. "Unfinished business below" was left outstanding at the morning's 2550.50 objective. Overnight action's new info... The intraday range persisted initially, until it did not. The very late post-close recovery to its upper-end repelled price back down to its 2557.50 lower-end. The lower-end's strength repelled price back up to probe 2563.75 and to attack 2565.00. Finally, the mold was broken and a 3-point dip into Europe's opens was reversed up sharply to test 2568.00. That has since extended to already test this morning's 2569.00 bias-up target. If, then... Calculable unfinished business below at 2550.50 was created Thursday morning. A structural attraction remains at Wednesday's touch of the 3-week old 2541.50 pivotal low. Overnight action suggests they're being abandoned by a detour to neutralize the unfinished businesses above. Those are Sunday night's 2577.25 "new Globex trend extreme" which requires an eventual intraday retest, and a new trend high close that was created last Friday. The highs' attraction gets every benefit of the doubt, especially if 2572.50 were also recovered through a relevant timing window. But once again failing to maintain above 2563.75 -- especially through the open -- would start to signal an entirely different intraday experience than the overnight rally. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2561.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2563.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2566.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... good morning welcome it is Friday it's time for Friday's Morning Market to her quick programming out at the top there is no just a reminder there is no Saturday review this weekend no Saturday review and if you have stocks to look at please bring them up this morning or early afternoon to make sure that we have time to cover them anything of relevance there is a lot of stuff that's been happening this this week after the clothes we had three three kind of three high-profile high profile text stocks that announce earnings maybe it was their impending announcements Google Amazon that kept stuck in a Range nice reactions all immediate reactions as usual that can have more of that effect on us then a reaction reactive effect what happened after yesterday's clothes remember yesterday is very last minute too late to be back up to 2560 by the cash from clothes 5750 was right after the cash station close all the way up to that we go 6325 attack in the mornings eyes do the Futures close which is why it was all the way down to 57 right back up to 6350 area this time with a different result this time the consolidation actually forming a flag Channel broke higher the channel ended at Europe's opens I've got a catalyst and Broadway all the way up to 2569 indicated at this moment at this morning the resistance of this morning by 6350 so there's no insurance that's the way or evidence of new sponsorship not even reinforcements just a paradigm shift from yesterday's mentality of choppy sideways Wednesday morning never paid the price for that no consequence other than being trapped in a Rangeoutstanding maintaining what would be tested in case 269 to the bicep Targetprioritizesif that's Road he had Tuesdays High's is probed are proved be probed intraday and don't or A to Z Eddie timing window presumably the open for instance and doesn't old is retraced that'll put a limit or cap on upside momentum just as much as yesterday did maybe there won't be any downside consequence other than to be trapped in a Range again how to get out if we're going to test Tuesday's eyes have to get out of both of them through whatever relevant I mean when do and then the attraction to retesting Sunday night size 25 3725 at the new low back strain extreme the potential for a new trend that's necessary today but the potential for a new trend I close which is also unfinished business above could be satisfied or at least we would be Monday or Tuesday but the point is the downside is off the table if 2569 if Tuesday if Tuesday's 2569 2575 highs or exceeded through whatever time and less reliably but still more so if 2563 75 R 25 6310 bicep signal simply triggers otherwise back under 25 6353 10:15 which would put into play and other signal in this case 5475 which presumably if it were Mets today would be on its way to 5050 which presumably if it were met would be on its way back to Wednesdays Lowe's which presumably if that would be on its way to 2536 or lower we're not going to be able to today unless the open does it unless they open Tuesday just won't be enough to reject sellers are marginal opportunity to regain control it looks like this potentially maybe it's a little less intrusive through whatever window to make sure that I remember what happened yesterday running into a little bit of difficulty what ultimately actually for the day which was holding a test of the prior afternoon size through a relevant window an opportunity to break below it through a relevant window that instead was recovered when they had been recovered when that relevant window closed when we got into the biased biased environment that Pryor High had been tested and held as support that really robbed sellers of their traction of their momentum it's a Friday is likely to persist into the noon hour on Fridays more difficult to get sponsorship let alone counter-trend sponsorship if sponsorship is attracted is really difficult to counter thatso keep that in mind on Fridays Friday afternoon if it starts trending if or if it persists in trending Beyond you know if the afternoons by somebody's exited above relevant High's below relevant was that can get carried away just part of the Friday factors as far as the mornings bias persisting through the noon hour it's a bit biased Target is Matt that becomes similar to having met and held a net and held that is buys Target that become similar to a meeting and holding the buy a signal so that I could put in a peek if we don't get out above 2569 for the open if it's tested any questions let me know think that's it yeah that the range was going to resolve to the Peril of the downside attractions wrapping up is not the way to resolve Up Break Away II but it doesn't gain sponsorship so it is in Jeopardy until the open recovering from the 25 doesn't recover and as you can see doesn't take the attraction below or down off the table huge long-awaited break back to let alone under one 1760 yesterday but no signs of stopping probably some compensation for the delay and then the Aussie as well also no signs of slowing or stopping at least silver which really disappointed yesterday by failing to hold its little range around 17 closing under the low of the testing of 17 has extended down overnight it's likely the right now is 1650 and gold also big Heartbreaker all this work done around 12:50 12:50 close by and broke lower isn't really extend accelerating its not at the moment but has Pro blower what it's doing is testing the three week old low the 3-week olds so if you can hold 6650 which is being tested here overnight currently trying to hold if it could hold 6650 through the open and preferably having tested it get out of here rallyingget out of the open rally in that be entirelyretest to produce a corrective bounce to 1280 50 where we can look at this one more time for the potential to recover but that's where the gold is up to right now the bond Longbine has won more lower close outstanding and potential for corrective bounce not one that I would position for but when to consider fading at resistance there was a slight bounce yesterday but really never got to resistance it was attractive enough to step in front of crude is really slow playing its recovery there's another there's a guy here after yesterday's clothes so close to the minimum objective that the slow playing is essentially pessimism pessimism being bullish potentially bullish probably bullets from a perspective and finally Natural Gas coming into its Target here overnight 282-2284 that is the target of having broken 296 so the predictable of that leg is done doesn't have to print Post open although just to 84 s different Post open to be done with that leg I'll come back in mid morning and look for a bicycle if there's any kind of and I will see you at the open today .

Day Trading Opening Trends - 10:32 AM

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Pre-open resistance test pushes back to support. Which pushes back, too. The overnight rally had pierced this morning's 2569.00 bias-up target by 1 tick. Its reaction down through the open touched this morning's 2563.50 bias-up signal. A bounce retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of that drop, and dipped back down to 2563.50. RSIs diverged positively on the retest and launched a slightly bigger bounce. Reaction to a favorable Fed headline triggered a surge through the overnight high up to 2572.50. That was done in 3 minutes, but consolidating since then has held at least 3 ticks above the 2569.00 bias-up target. So, this morning's bias signal is renewed. Renewed bias-up effectively targets a retest of Sunday night's 2577.25 high. One caveat to extending higher is the surge's catalyst being a headline. Renewed bias-up is less reliable anyway, and the bias-up environment is required only to be supported by the 2563.50 bias-up signal if retested. Back under 2569.00 would threaten a morning retracement, and it's being tested now. But fresh session highs would help to confirm the morning's rally is extending higher, especially if maintained when exiting the bias environment.  

Tonight's Day Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM

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FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2581.50 2579.00 ...would target  2586.75  2584.25 Bias-down: under  2574.00 2571.50 ...would target  2568.75 2566.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Mid-Day Market Thoughts - 1:46 PM

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Only one template says higher, and its clock is ticking. This morning's renewed bias-up extended. And extended. The renewed bias-up target was essentially Sunday night's 2577.25 "new Globex trend extreme." Its retest was fulfilled during the noon hour up to 2579.25. That pierced this afternoon's bias-up signal by 1 tick, and held it. So, this is now a no-bias environment. Friday afternoon no-bias environments tend to mean it, especially when a bias signal's test holds. The balance of the bias environment -- and often the balance of the session -- simply ranges flat, if not flat to lower.

Today's rally might seem an excellent candidate for ranging flat-to-lower. Primarily because resistance was nominal along the way up to neutralizing its objective. That might be compensated by finding significant resistance above it, which is the likeliest scenario. But since the objective was met by a single leg above the bias-up signal, the second likeliest scenario for one more probe higher remains possible.

So, how will we know? Or, how early will we know? Being a Friday, probing fresh highs through the bias environment exit tends to marginalize sellers through the close. Otherwise, breaking back under 2575.50 and 2572.50 would signal the a deeper pullback underway.

Day Trading Summary - 2:57 PM

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Market Wrap was held an hour early today, and I'm away from the screens for the final hour. You can watch the Wrap recording here. New trend highs up to 2580.75 printed when the afternoon bias environment came within view of lapsing. The actual lapse trended back down under the noon hour's 2578.75 prior high. This setup creates risk of trending down during the final hour. Trending down into the close just a little could prevent a new trend high close on a Friday. Last Friday's new trend high close still requires another, regardless. Trending down into the close a lot could also prevent closing above 2563.75 recovery. Confirmed by a second-day consecutive higher close Monday would all but ensure extending to 2590.50. The last close above 2563.75 was not confirmed.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND. CHARTROOM WILL BE AVAILABLE AGAIN AT SUNDAY NIGHT'S GLOBEX OPEN. ENJOY THE WEEKEND!


Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 5:55 PM

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MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2581.25 2579.00 ...would target  2586.50  2584.25 Bias-down: under  2573.00 2569.75 ...would target  2567.50  2565.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.