Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 11-08-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Gapping up on the FBI's Clinton news formed a "session-long rally" setup. It was less reliable for having formed over a weekend. But intraday timing windows complied, anyway, with all but one probing above its prior timing window's high. The exception was the final hour, which dipped 5-1/2 points from attacking 2125.00. Rallying 10-1/2 points through to test 2130.00 could be dismissed for barely probing fresh highs while the position-squaring window had begun lapsing. Overnight action's new info... Gapping back down slightly at the Globex open extended through the afternoon's mid-day "lower prior highs" defined by 2123.50, and into the late pullback's consolidation at 2121.25. The drop was fully retraced to retest 2130.00. Another reaction down is now attacking 2123.50. If, then... Continued compliance with Monday's "session-long rally" would probe higher this morning, if not actually trend. The next higher attractions 2134.00 and 2138.00. But not gaining traction yesterday requires gapping up to launch any durable trend. So, rallying without gapping up would be likely to reverse down this afternoon. Neither gapping up nor rallying could repeat the overnight pullback, but probably not hold support at Monday's mid-day "lower prior highs" that already held overnight. So, a pullback would more likely target 2118.25, and possibly 2113.50 before suggesting yesterday's rally is actually reversing down. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2121.25 would be likely to trigger the 2123.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2127.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Fresh pullback low holds yesterday's range. The 2122.50 immediately extended down to touch yesterday's late 2119.25 low. Its reaction up to 2124.25 was retraced entirely. The next reaction up has extended to attack yesterday's cash session close at 2126.50. But meanwhile the 2123.50 bias-down signal triggered at 10:15. It triggered cleanly. Bouncing to touch it at 10:30 did not actually recover it, so it is not invalidated. One more opportunity to invalidate it would recover the 2132.50 bias-up signal at 11:30. But that's unlikely since yesterday afternoon's buyers didn't gain traction, which wasn't invalidated by the open gapping up. None of which prevents filling the gap back up to yesterday's 2129.00 futures close. Or actually testing the 2132.50 bias-up signal. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under 2122.75 and 2121.25 would trigger a drop to fresh session lows. The 2118.25 bias-down target's test would likely be probed down to 2113.50.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2141.50 2137.50 ...would target  2146.50  2142.50 Bias-down: under  2131.75  2127.75 ...would target 2125.25  2121.25 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP SIGNAL, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Rallying to fresh highs Tuesday morning should not be durable, since the prior day's buyers gained no traction, which wasn't offset by a gap up. That's excessive optimism. The intraday probe was retraced to only attack Monday's prior high, which is also excessive optimism. All of which followed the morning's bias-down being rejected, fairly, but still a product of optimism. The market's optimism is a belief that its candidate will win. A decisive victory tonight would probably be cause for at least some more optimistic behavior, no matter how much optimism that Tuesday's rally already discounted. But an indecisive result can only encourage selling. And in today's Market Wrap, I describe why Tuesday's session makes a poor base to try launching any probe higher. I'll be checking the chaRTroom regularly during election results, and annotating the chart where possible. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2144.75 2140.75 ...would target  2149.75  2145.75 Bias-down: under  2134.50  2130.50 ...would target  2129.25  2125.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.