Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 11-20-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday night had extended Tuesday's rally by probing above the 2082.50 intraday high up to 2089.25. That was retraced entirely before the open, but never actually reversed down -- that is, Thursday's entire session ranged choppily around Wednesday's 2080.50 close, between 2075.50-2083.50. Having held a test of the morning's bias-up signal, an offsetting test of its 2072.00 bias-down signal was put into play, not invalidated, and left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... Thursday night's weak open didn't extend down, and instead firmed. That eventually became an aggressive surge attacking 2086.00 into Europe's opens. Perhaps that was a little too aggressive, as it was retraced entirely back down to Thursday's 2078.00 cash session close. Too aggressive, or perhaps only too early, as all but 1 tick of the surge has been recovered. If, then... Yesterday's weak open helped to confirm that Thursday's close had held prior highs, and did not break them. WedEX's afternoon influence is passively bearish, so while momentum may have peaked, intraday noise can still probe higher temporarily. Whether attacking Thursday night's high up to 2088.00, or probing it up to 2092.00, sliding or drifting lower into the weekend is likely. An exception would be for the signal to invert, which would begin by gapping open beyond a prior extreme -- I'll update on that later this morning. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2088.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2084.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2080.50 would be less likely to trigger bias-up.

The rally has accomplished a lot. A last-minute dip within 15 minutes of the cash session open touched the 2084.50 bias-up signal. Its reaction bounced to greet the open at fresh highs testing 2088.00. A consolidation was resolved by extending up to 2093.50. The post-open consolidation contained a higher high and higher low to form trending. The opening 15 minutes trended up. Forming this setup on expiration is often predictive of the entire session. The 2092.00 bias-up target was exceeded (barely, in a reaction down from 2094.50) through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. And more than just probing Wednesday night's 2089.25, it is being recovered through relevant timing windows. The burden of proof is definitely on sellers. Contradicting that is the bearish WedEX. It's passive, triggered late, and only by default. So, its contradiction isn't overwhelming. And RSIs that were overbought initially are now diverging negatively. Back under 2091.00 would start to signal at least backing-and-filling, which could test yesterday's "lower prior highs" around 2083.00 or lower. Otherwise, extending higher today remains possible.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2095.00 2092.00 ...would target  2100.50  2097.75 Bias-down: under  2086.50  2083.75 ...would target 2081.00  2078.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Thursday's rally was denied a second consecutive higher confirming close. But Friday was still constructive to forming a bottom. Its gap down created an attraction back up to Thursday's close, and its low filled the gap back down to Wednesday's 1.0665 close. Closing back above the 1.0680 prior low would have been optimal, but almost any initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Overnight strength settled back intraday to range between the decline's 1074.50-1082.00 target range, closing lower on the day but still potentially basing. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday night's surge was retraced Friday back down to the range's lower-end at 14.00. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Intraday weakness touched what had been support at 154-10 and held, but didn't close positive, which left Thursday's breakout unconfirmed. Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Initial weakness reacted up sharply intraday. Perhaps it helps to confirm that sellers aren't being attracted to current levels. But it is also reminiscent of a last-minute risk premium for weekend geopolitical uncertainties. At least an obligatory probe of fresh lows is likely if Monday doesn't immediately extend Friday's bounce, for whatever reason. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Frideay fell on further consequences to not triggering a buy signal after Thursday's EIA report. Now two consecutive closes under a multi-session range require there be at least an eventual third lower close before a recovery would be credible.

It's expiration, so it's less predictive. But it's still interesting to note that the afternoon's sellers gained traction for their efforts. The bias environment exit was under the noon hour low, and the final hour entry was lower. It's even more interesting in the context of a bearish WedEX. A passive, late, barely bearish WedEX. Which wasn't invalidated Friday afternoon, as price trended down -- albeit gradually and stuck in positive territory. Nevertheless, that leaves the door open to trending down more steeply Monday morning. That would suggest another detour is about to begin on the path to new highs. But will it last several days, or just several hours? That, and how deep it can dive, will be discussed in detail during this weekend's Saturday Review... Its link will be sent later. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkmcyc

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2094.25 2091.50 ...would target  2099.75  2097.00 Bias-down: under  2085.25  2082.50 ...would target 2080.00  2077.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.