Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 11-23-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Gapping up Friday to 2088.00 and extending higher through the first hour to 2094.50 retested Wednesday night's 2089.25 high. It also fulfilled the morning's bias-up target. The balance of the session trended back down shallowly to enter the final hour testing 2082.00. The final hour firmed back up to 20887.00-2088.00 into the close. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night open surged up to 2092.50. Then almost all of Friday's late bounce was retraced back down to 2082.00. Crude Oil had been probing fresh lows, too, but surged on news that Saudi Arabia would defend it -- that triggered a surge in ES, momentarily probing into positive territory attacking 2091.00. If, then... If the bearish WedEX is at all influential Friday afternoon, then it should be very influential Monday morning, following the downward drift with an aggressive slide. Not sliding through the open would significantly undermine that bearish influence, and possibly point higher for the day -- if not also for the week. Potentially bullish holiday seasonality ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving closure suggests that any downdraft this week must run its course by Tuesday's close. First Trade... CORRECTION: Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2085.00 would be less likely to trigger the 2082.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2079.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Overnight slide is not repeated. Last night's tests of the 2091.50 bias-up signal had resolved down to test this morning's 2082.50 bias-down signal. The bias-up signal had been recovered pre-open to within 3 ticks at 2090.75. Back under 2084.50 after the open would have repeated the overnight drop, and probably accelerated it. But the post-open dip only touched 2084.50, never triggering. Its reaction up was retraced entirely, but not another tick, also not triggering. That's 2-3 rounds of selling, and still no break lower. So, another bounce has probed last night's highs up to 2093.00. Despite invoking the grace period, the 2091.50 bias-up signal didn't trigger at 10:30. An offsetting test of the 2082.50 bias-down signal is in-play. That would be a 3rd or 4th round of selling. Back under 2089.00 would signal momentum reversing down, targeting 2082.50. Printing a fresh high first would allow me to raise the sell signal. The bearish WedEX's influence should have been aggressive by now if it were influential at all, but the post-open pattern doesn't prevent a steep slide. Regardless, resuming the rally here is much less likely-- at least, before noon.

MONafternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2095.75 2093.00 ...would target  2101.00  2098.25 Bias-down: under  2090.75  2088.00 ...would target 2085.25  2082.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

It's not expiration-related, so it's not easily ended. This morning's surge to 2093.00 never extended higher. And it seemed like forever before probing back under its 2089.00 sell signal. Equally long was the time that elapsed before probing under 2089.00 actually broke lower. In fact, this afternoon's 2088.00 bias-down signal didn't trigger at 1:20, triggering no-bias. Neither was it broken by 1:30 to invalidate the no-bias. So, plunging under it now to 2081.25 is "no-bias trending" that requires being retraced eventually to at least 2088.00. Will that retest come soon? Sellers have an excuse to pause -- they just fulfilled this morning's unfinished business at 2082.50, and oversold RSIs at the 2081.25 low will doom a bounce to failure. Back above 2084.50 would start to signal that bounce underway. There's otherwise nothing preventing a slide into the top of the hour.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Probing fresh lows Monday didn't trend down, but the optimal bottoming pattern would have rallied already into the afternoon. Initial strength Tuesday would still be credible for extending higher intraday, but nothing any later would be as reliable. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Trending down Sunday night retested last week's 1064.00 intraday low but not its overnight low $2 lower. The nearest buy signal in this pattern remains a close above 1082.00. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Sunday night's drop probed fresh lows Monday but recovered above prior lows later. None of which is a buy signal, and not confirming an immediate recovery attempt would likely launch a new downleg. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday's gap down filled the gap back Wednesday's close, fulfilling the minimum consequence to Thursday's failed breakout. Bouncing immediately from there extended higher intraday to close again back above the 154-10 signal. Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Fresh lows overnight were recovered on Saudi defensive statements. Iranian comments sent price back down, but never back to overnight lows or even under prior intraday lows. The pattern still requires a surge and then next day follow-through to avoid launching a new downleg already. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Bouncing Monday helped to set the stage for attacking Friday's low again  to form a bottom. No other setup would qualify as bullish at this stage of the pattern.

I had described 2-3 downdrafts through the open, each one shallower -- or at least recovering higher -- but none gaining traction or reversing the trend up. Dramatic downside finally came, but it originated during a no-bias environment, which was too late to gain traction, itself. Neutralizing Monday's "unfinished business above at 2088.00" would neutralize the no-bias trending. A downdraft from there, or without yet bouncing to 2088.00, could influence all of Tuesday's session. Not reacting down from 2088.00 could drift higher by default. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrczvkk WEBINAR SOFTWARE UPDATE: I've narrowed down our choices to two. We're testing one tonight, called "OmniJoin," sold by Brother. After testing two dozen this weekend, I'm very hopeful that this (or the subject of tomorrow night's test) will serve our purposes. Please try it, from whatever device or operating system you can, and let me know your experience. Thanks... click below: OmniJoin by Brother

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2090.75 2088.00 ...would target  2096.00  2093.25 Bias-down: under  2083.25  2080.50 ...would target 2077.50  2074.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.