Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) (All prices are basis Mar, which is trading at a 3-point premium to Dec)... Thursday's open was greeted by a Globex-flip setup that a China trade headline prevented from triggering its bearish signal at 3138.50. Rejecting the setup made it as bullish as it would have been bearish, doubling its knee-jerk reaction from 3165.00 up to 3180.25. Dipping 27 points down to 3153.00 expended a lot of selling pressure without even threatening to leave positive territory. The final 60-90 minutes choppily ranged around 3168.00, the rally's next target. Its last swing attacked the morning's 3180.25 high up to 3177.00 -- and still dropped back down to 3168.00 during the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Globex gapped up to and through Thursday morning's highs in reaction to the seemingly ultimate China trade headline -- a signed deal. Flat-to-higher ranging since the open has included an attack on 3188.00 before midnight, and its retest just an hour ago. Despite mostly ranging sideways, there's just enough complexity to qualify as a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring eventual intraday retest. Now the range's 3177.50 lower-end is being tested. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) (All prices are basis Mar, which is trading at a 3-point premium to Dec)... GOOD NEWS / BAD NEWS: It doesn't get any better than this! (Also, it doesn't get any better than this.) The rally has gotten every favorable input it could presumably want. Not over the course of time, but within the past 24-48 hours. Whether the news is viewed favorably or unfavorably -- from China trade/tariffs, and Trump, to Boris/Brexit -- these unknowns are less so, if not fewer. And aren't we always told the market abhors unknowns? Actually, no, rallies thrive on a proverbial "Wall of Worry" whose pessimists are potential buyers. Climbing walls of worry gets dangerous if still trying to climb despite reaching its top. Perhaps the market will provide new layers of brick to extend the wall higher, but even in the near-term that would require discounting prices back down... Meanwhile, room for noise above the rally's 3168.00 target, which is 3184.25, essentially defines the overnight range's midpoint. I'm reluctant to be a sellers without yet retesting overnight highs, or without gapping down to isolate the overnight range. And especially with today's Friday Factors, it's not impossible for intraday probing above yesterday's highs to extend this leg up to 3203.00-3206.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3184.25 would be likely to exceed the 3181.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3177.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 3175.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3169.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

And bearish Isolation setup triggered, fighting invalidation. Market Tour had noted "it doesn't get better than this" as a reason for caution that reaching the top of the Wall of Worry is dangerous for a rally. But a new downleg should wait either retesting for the 3188.25 overnight high's "new Globex trend extreme," or for opening entirely back down under yesterday's 3171.00 close to form an Isolation setup. Meanwhile, at least a pre-open dip filling the gap down to 3171.00 wouldn't be inappropriate. A well-timed China trade headline exacerbated that to 3165.50. It still recovered to attack the 3184.25 room for noise. And then collapsed again down to 3163.25.

So, an Isolation setup formed from greeting the open in negative territory. And it triggered by spending the opening 15 minutes of volatility in negative territory. This can't be rejected in time to "be as bullish as it would have been bearish." A weak base has formed that should now doom to failure any morning rally attempt.

Meanwhile, China trade and Impeachment headlines have helped to trigger bias-up, and also fulfill its target. Their odd timing may be wreaking a little havoc on this morning's windows. The 3175.00 bias-up signal wasn't yet probed deeply enough until 1 minute too late to reject it. Nevertheless, that has extended down to 3166.00. Sellers will get every benefit of the doubt for any sell signal, ultimately targeting the last upleg's 3127.75 origin, if not its probe down to 3110.00-3113.00. Only closing today above yesterday's high would be credible for extending the rally.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3173.75 3177.50 ...would target 3180.50 3184.25 Bias-down: under 3162.00 3166.00 ...would target 3155.00 3159.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Isolation setup remains intact. We've already dismissed the post-open attack on 3187.00 as only a weak-handed knee-jerk reaction. It originated from the first 15 minutes of volatility having developed exclusively in negative territory under yesterday's 3171.00 close. And the bias environment lapsed back under 3171.00, to fresh post-open lows testing 3160.00. That's an anchor. The anchor hasn't prevented bouncing since then. A retest of 3175.00 was likely, being this morning's bias-up signal, which broke lower during its bias-up environment. Now it is met. Bouncing any higher would start to undermine the Isolation setup. The overnight high's 3188.25 "new Globex trend extreme" doesn't require being tested today, but it would become likely if yesterday morning's 3180.25 high were being probed. 3175.00 is still being tested. Its bounce is free to fail at any time, and may be failing now. Back under 3171.00 would start to launch a new downleg, while the Isolation setup is likely to end the session at earlier lows or probing lower.

Optimism is pretty thick up here. Justified both by "finalizing" a China trade deal, and by at least two macro events (GBR and Impeachment votes) becoming history. Thursday night's narrow ranging above all prior highs was just complex enough for its 3188.25 high to form a "new Globex trend extreme" that requires eventual intraday retest. Then came Friday's two pre-open collapses to 3166.00 and 3163.00. Their contribution to optimism came from their steep bounces in between. The latter's reaction surged post-open to attack 3187.00. Being only a China trade headline reaction, it also resolved down sharply to test 3160.00. The selling's artificial catalyst crowded out organic sponsorship, whether to recover or to extend down. Sponsorship of any sort was lacking after retracing the morning's probe under its 3175.00 bias-down signal. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways. But the open's Isolation setup formed, and triggered thorough the opening 15 minutes of volatiity before it could be rejected. Closing Friday above Thursday's 3180.25 high would have invalidated it. Closing Monday above Thursday's 3180.25 high could invalidate it. Meanwhile, Thursday night's 3188.25 high can be retested intraday, either a detour before rewarding the Isolation setup back down to the last relative low under 3128.00, or resuming the rally to 3203.00-3206.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3176.50 3180.00 ...would target 3183.50 3187.00 Bias-down: under 3166.50 3170.00 ...would target 3159.25 3162.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.