Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 12-18-2015

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2036.00  2027.00 ...would target  2043.00  2034.00 Bias-down: under  2024.25 2015.25 ...would target  2017.75  2008.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Well, that's interesting. The inverted morning-long rally signal had scared away buyers ahead of expiration. Through yesterday afternoon's no-bias environment, the market had been ranging choppily sideways between the morning's 2038.50 low and the afternoon's 2050.50 bias-up signal. Pent-up buying pressure could have begun breaking higher within 10-15 minutes of the 2:30 bias environment exit but didn't (which is when I had to leave early). The exit, itself, was drifting lower, so a rally was unlikely. Even the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window drifted. Then the last 5 minutes plunged to end the cash session at 2032.00. Overnight action's new info... Thursday's closing plunge barely paused until attacking 2022.00 through the Globex open. That extended to 2015.50 and then lower to 2012.00 -- after an interim attack on 2030.00 triggered by the Yen's overnight head-fake. The 2012.00 low is being retested now. If, then... Today's bullish WedEX couldn't ask for much more. So little more*, that not fulfilling it could be due to a massive afternoon meltdown. WedEX influences Friday afternoon and Monday morning. If Thursday morning's slide helped to discount recent gains from expiration jockeying, then the overnight slide should be a windfall to the bullish WedEX driving price higher into and out of the weekend... *That "little more" which a bullish WedEX would still want for a Friday afternoon rally is lack of Friday morning follow-through. Lower highs centered around 2012.00 at 2008.00-2014.50 represent "lower prior highs" of the Fri-Mon Island that had required a retest. Exiting the morning's bias environment back above that range would start to signal that sellers likely absorbed. Already rallying through the morning would not steal any energy from the bullish WedEX. However, trending down through the morning could invert the WedEX to bearish. And all that that entails. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2012.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2015.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2020.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting above 2030.00 would be likely to trigger the 2027.00 bias-up signal.

Target me, supports held, last gasp recovery attempt in process. The pre-open surge that attacked 2030.00 was reversed back under 2027.00 to greet the open at 2022.00. The initial extension hesitated above the 2015.25 bias-down signal, but never recovered. Bias-down triggered late, its grace period invoked by a 7-1/2 point bounce to 2018.00. Refueled sellers quickly probed the 2008.75 bias-down target by 6 ticks. Nothing requires the bias-down target to hold its test, nor prevents the decline from extending. But probing above 2011.00 (being tested now) would likely develop into an upleg.

A recovery is possible for having neutralized the attraction back down to the Fri-Mon Island's 2008.00-2014.50 "lower prior highs." Their complete recovery isn't yet done. Having fulfilled the bias-down target, exiting the bias environment above the bias signal's 2018.00 prior high would help to confirm momentum has reversed up.

And that would play right into the hands of a bullish WedEX. A WedEX that the morning's bias-down signal has threatened to invert, if not rejected at the bias environment's exit.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2026.00 2016.00 ...would target  2033.00 2023.00 Bias-down: under  2018.00  2008.00 ...would target 2011.50  2001.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Another recovery effort failed, albeit only by a drift lower. Click here to view a late-morning overview we did of Crude Oil and Precious Metals - Gold & Silver (we'll do frankincense and myrrh next week). Crude Oil was testing its bounce limit, which doesn't now seem like it will be recovered by the close. This morning's bounce could have rejected the bias-down by recovering 2018.00. The bounce touched 2018.00, and trended down from there to 2001.50. WedEX has inverted to bearish. Its only requirement on Friday is that bounces fail. Monday is the aggressive follow-through if Friday's minimum requirement is fulfilled. This afternoon's 2008.00 bias-down signal was being overlapped within 3 minutes of 1:20 to invoke the grace period. Its 2001.50 target was met already to within 1 point. It can be probed more thoroughly. Nothing prevents trending down under it, but that's not required.  

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. CLICK HERE FOR A RECORDED FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) The dip targeting 1.0750-1.0785 didn't really extend Friday, as the session was spent only ranging narrowly around Thursday's lows. Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday's Descending Triangle broke higher instead of lower. The lowered 1061.50 buy signal was recovered, after probing it earlier to test the 1070.00 previous buy signal. A second consecutive higher close would launch an upleg. Back under 1057.00 would target new lows at 1038.50-1041.00. Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Having fulfilled the required third lower close at 13.69 Thursday, Friday's surge recovered Wednesday's gap up to test 14.10. Its recovery would signal a bottom is forming. Back above 14.35 would launch a rally leg. 30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The 155-29 corrective bounce target was exceeded by gapping up Friday to 156-24, which a bounce retested after filling the gap back to Thursday's close. The sell signal is unchanged at 154-30. Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Fulfilling the required retest of Sunday night's 34.50 low allowed a close above 35.45 to reverse momentum up. Its intraday test was rejected to fresh lows on the afternoon Rig Counts. The low held as support, but still needs a recover to prove a bottom is in. Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday night's drop essentially fulfilled its potential to test 1.67 and recovered to open testing 1.80. It proved to be an inside day, still testing 1.77. But back above 1.82 and 1.85 would now seal a bottom.

So, bearish WedEX was called onto the field after halftime, and ultimately controlled the 3rd quarter. It immediately drove price to a fresh session low at 2002.50, limited an afternoon bounce to 2014.50 to hold the noon hour highs, and then punished that effort with another new session low at 1998.50. The 4th quarter performance should be fun. That last drop to new lows satisfied the afternoon's 2001.50 bias-down target that had been left outstanding. Its reaction up to "higher prior lows" was also reversed down to 1991.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvvkmhs

I'll send the Saturday Review link overnight. It starts at 9:30am ET.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2015.25 2005.25 ...would target  2024.75  2014.75 Bias-down: under  2002.00  1992.00 ...would target 10996.00  1986.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.