Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's low had fulfilled the decline's next lower objectives at 2361.00 and 2345.00, but that didn't prevent Tuesday night's open from plunging to test 2317.00. It wasn't a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest, and Wednesday's post-open surged to 2387.00. A reaction down filled the gap back to Monday's 2352.00 cash session close, which held through the morning. Rallying into the noon hour probed fresh session highs during the afternoon bias environment, which rejected before entering the final hour. More than marginalizing sellers, this setup creates a vulnerability to extend the intraday trend, which it did by adding 55 points to attack 2478.00. That is almost half of yesterday's net gain. Overnight action's new info... The first reaction to Wednesday's final hour 55-point surge was to retrace it by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} and attack 2456.00. Consolidating until midnight surged to probe a fresh high up to 2481.50. A brief, fresh high that was soon retraced to 2456.00. Then through it, into and out of Europe's opens, retracing all of the last 55-point surge back under 2423.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Bending a familiar phrase: What can go up a lot, can go down a lot. Large intraday moves reflect not only an oversold or overbought condition, but also the range for play. Wednesday's record-setting 161-point rally from Tuesday night's low reflects the degree of having been oversold, and the room for noise. It also rewarded buyers for absorbing sellers, apparently too much, too soon, to be maintained. Wednesday's last intraday upleg was no different in principle than Sunday night or Tuesday night's opening plunges which created extremes. Some degree of pullback was likely since trend reversals aren't signaled by the same session that contains a prior trend's extreme -- and a resuming the decline is still possible since yesterday's rally doesn't yet qualify as a trend reversal. And there's still room up to 2525.00 and 2607.00 without yet qualifying as more than a temporary correction that resumes the decline. Meanwhile, Wednesday was day-9 of what may be an Up/Down-Crash setup forming, which can be disqualified by a second consecutive up-day today. Regardless, I'm still reluctant to pronounce a bottom forming without there first being a capitulative session, or two. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2440.25 would be unlikely to recover the 2448.25 bias-down target at 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2461.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2454.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Retracement resumes post-open. The overnight drop back down to 2422.50 had retraced yesterday's final hour 55-point surge. Consolidating there formed an Ascending Triangle, vulnerable to a false break higher that then capitulates lower.

Except, breaking higher and/or capitulating lower would depend on already extending down before the opening 15 minutes of volatility had lapsed.

A post-open blip-up to attack 2446.00 was reacting down by 9:45, and has extended down to 2412.50. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs have avoided oversold territory, suggesting that sellers are being well-rewarded compared to the amount of force they're exerting. Bias-down has renewed, and although not required, the next likely target is 2406.00. RSIs not getting oversold means no positive divergences. That didn't prevent bouncing back up to 2429.00, and violating the current bounce limit. But bounces that originate while RSIs aren't getting oversold do tend to fail. Back above 2431.00 would start to signal otherwise.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2446.25 2446.00 ...would target 2455.00 2454.75 Bias-down: under 2423.50 2423.00 ...would target 2413.25 2412.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I AM AWAY FROM THE SCREENS UNTIL THE FINAL HOUR. The overnight slide from 2481.50 down to 2422.50 was probed by another 10 points down to 2412.50. That was during the open, which had initially tried rallying through 2445.00. The dip to 2412.50 was recovered to attack 2445.00, and its retest has reacted down again. Now this afternoon's 2423.00 bias-down signal has triggered late, targeting 2412.75. Any lower would next target 2406.00, and under 2403.00 would target 2496.00. It's a series of dominoes that leads either to ending a correction of yesterday's rally, or else to its complete retracement (probably). Meanwhile, about that first domino... All of the overlapping legs from this morning and through the noon hour have formed a circular argument of false starts. The bias environment exit's last surge back up to 2445.00 should be the last rally effort, so the decline should be coming shortly. But delaying it through the afternoon bias environment could resolve up out of relief.

Wednesday's record-setting rally had tried resuming overnight. Its 22-point down to 2455.50 was recovered to probe a fresh high up to 2481.50. But that failed, and Thursday's open was greeted by a bounce from 2422.50. The post-open recovery attempt failed, too, getting up to only 2445.00 before eventually resolved down to attack the afternoon's lowest target at 2396.00. That ended the correction of Wednesday's rally, as anything lower would have returned to new lows. The reward for ending the correction was to probe fresh session highs above 2445.00. That was doubled, attacking 2499.00 through the futures close. The 9-day series heading toward an Up/Down-Crash setup is now invalidated by Thursday's second consecutive up-session. Which doesn't require trending up. But resuming and extending the rally Friday would next target 2525.00 and potentially 2606.00. Resuming the decline anyway would be unlikely from opening only slightly weaker Friday. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2503.00 2502.75 ...would target 2515.00 2514.75 Bias-down: under 2482.25 2481.75 ...would target 2473.00 2472.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.