Viditrade Day-Trading Updates - 12-30-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Surging out of a gap up quickly found a momentum peak Tuesday morning at 2069.00. The noon hour's exit resumed rallying into the final hour up to 2074.50. The rally gained traction by the bias environment exit and final hour's entry. The balance of the session ranged sideways, even dipping momentarily to touch the morning's 2069.00 high as support. Overnight action's new info... Tuesday's high was pierced by 2-3 ticks while waiting for Europe's opens. That wasn't helpful. A 5-point slide quickly tested 2067.00, and price has been ranging around yesterday morning's 2069.00 high. If, then... Tuesday's traction should be rewarded by probing higher Wednesday morning. That can be delayed until the afternoon if a shallowly weak open isn't soon recovered -- and currently the open is indicated to be shallowly weak. Deteriorating much more would threaten yesterday's 2065.00 noon hour low, and gapping much lower could offset Tuesday's upside traction. Although tomorrow's volume will be relatively strong for a three-day holiday weekend, trending this afternoon would be difficult to stop, regardless of whether it is up or down. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2065.00 would be likely to trigger the 2068.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2070.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Bias-down target met, RSIs firm, bad news discounted. The shallowly weak open at this morning's 2068.00 bias-down signal immediately extended to fresh lows at 2064.00 and lower. A bounce reversed down even lower. The 2061.50 bias-down target was just touched. The bounce attacked the bias-down signal to within 2-3 ticks at 2067.50.Having resolved in a fresh low, recovering 2067.50 would still be credible for reversing momentum back up. This may be today's only remaining path to probing above yesterday's highs. RSIs weren't oversold at the low, and back above 2063.75 would start to signal momentum reversing back up

Also potentially bullish is Crude Oil's reaction to a bearish EIA report. We discussed that possibility during the pre-market Tour. An emotional reaction would be likely, but likely only temporary, as the news would follow two earlier bearish items (API and Saudis) that are already discounted. If Crude isn't actually extending down, then stocks have a chance to bottom.

Otherwise, no lower objective is in-play. But not signaling a recovery could simply drift lower.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2076.50 2069.00 ...would target  2081.25  2074.00 Bias-down: under  2068.25  2061.00 ...would target 2062.50  2055.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Market Wrap starts half-hour early at 3:33pm ET. Also, I'm away from screens between 12:35 - 1:45 ET. This morning's 2061.50 bias-down target has held its test. But its test has not been rejected. The morning's bias environment did react up to 2066.50, still 1 point short of the bounce preceding 2061.50. But no higher. And no lower. Exiting the bias environment in rally mode would have reversed momentum up. That didn't happen, so entering the noon hour above the open's 2068.00 highs would have made fresh highs likely. Didn't happen either, so exiting  the noon hour above 2070.50 would be optimal for confirming the uptrend has resumed. There's otherwise no requirement to trend down -- only the greater vulnerability so long as yesterday afternoon's upside traction isn't being influential.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2068.25  2061.00 ...would target  2073.25  2066.00 Bias-down: under  2059.25 2052.00 ...would target  2053.25  2046.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Wednesday's last half-hour finally probed under what had been the the morning's 2061.50 bias-down target. It didn't require a break, but a Descending Triangle had formed since buyers couldn't produce a higher high. That pattern, the break's late timing, and impending three-day weekend, all combined for a perfect storm that plunged down to 2053.50. A bounce attacked 2060.00 before reversing back down to the low. To within 1 tick. Last Thursday's "lower prior highs" around 2055.00 offer natural support. But not already reacting up intraday from its test does keep the door wide open to extending lower Thursday morning to 2044.00 or 2041.00. Meanwhile, having trended down into Wednesday's close, gapping up above the afternoon's 2065.50 highs would form a "session-long rally" setup. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhvxyv

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc