Fibonacci can be as complicated as its user wants to make it. That’s deceptive, because it masks the fact that Fibonacci can also be quite simple. Following are some of the simplest applications — albeit not the most precise, but bases for equally simple uses.
Lonardo Bonacci of Pisa, “”Fibonacci,”” discovered a number series, which we’ve come to regard as the Fibonacci Sequence. My purpose here is not to explore its origins, but I urge subscribers to do that on their own. Fibonacci measurements are found naturally in patterns that appear in the physical world. And the patterns very often define ratios between price trends and their corrections, or their breakouts. My work refers to this as Fibonacci or Fibonaccis.
The most basic Fibonacci ratio is 61.8%. It is astonishing how often a price retracement will have ended upon retracing 61.8% of the leg it is correcting, and then resume the original trend. There are derivations such as 38.2%, 161.8%, and many more. So many more, that it’s not difficult to justify a Fibonacci calculation’s accuracy in retrospect. We don’t trade retrospectively. Fibonacci is useful only when it identifies price targets that should be met, and price limits to corrections that may become trend reversals. Fibonaccis should also be relevant in identifying trend strength when a relevant level is exceeded.
I have identified which of the Fibonacci calculations appear most commonly in price charts. These are the scheme of 38.2% and 61.8% retracements, and the projections of 38.2%, 61.8%, 161.8%, 238.2% and 261.8%. But, 61.8%… of what? Two specific price points must be chosen for the calculation, or else “”GIGO”” (garbage-in, garbage-out). The trick is in anchoring the Fibonacci tool at the correct two price points.
- When working with a consolidation, I derive the Fibonacci scheme from my “”pivotal”” high and low (the high prior to the actual high, and the low prior to the actual low).
- When working with a trend, I first locate the trending legs that were retraced by 61.8%, which then identifies the strength of the trend — the more recently they appear, the younger the trend. This may seem obvious, and it often is. But it can differentiate individual trends in longer-term, seemingly age-old trends.
- I define a pattern’s stage to determine where to locate the two relevant price points. Examples of their differences include the (presumed) end of a trend, relatively steep trending, unusually shallow correction, Symmetrical Triangle pattern, and channels.
I have derived specific proprietary rules that apply to each of these price formations, and others. I confirm the correct Fibonacci placement by observing how its scheme is coinciding with price action. The specific measurements that are coinciding with price action, and other properties of the measurement and of that stage of the pattern, help to anticipate the resolution. The underlying question to me is whether it’s okay to retrofit the measurement, and I think it is. I want to find the Fibonacci scheme that seems to be guiding price action, and then continue monitoring its other projections to anticipate the resolution. I also think it’s okay to ignore noise — or, at least, not to be too sensitive to abandoning a proven Fibonacci scheme for price action straying only slightly or briefly.
Charting packages and trading platforms that include charting tend to include Fibonacci tools. In addition to learning more about Leonardo, himself, I encourage subscribers to experiment with their own Fibonacci tools.