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First-15 minutes

A session’s most volatile window is its first 15 minutes, or “first-15”. Index prices often fluctuate widely as intraday orders must be filled immediately while various market sponsorships try to establish a dominant influence.

This is also a psychological hand-off from overnight sponsorship to intraday sponsorship. Overnight trending can attract intraday reinforcements to extend the trend, but the gap’s sudden price change may instead inhibit reinforcements and attract counter-trend sponsorship.

Several setups are triggered or assessed at 9:45, or for behaviors of the 9:30-9:45 window.

  • Exiting the first-15 beyond the overnight extreme can confirm trending will persist through the morning.
  • A separate setup compares the first-15 to the second-15 and then that first half-hour to the second half-hour.
  • Isolating an overnight probe of the prior intraday session’s extreme at 9:45 can maintain the reversal through the morning.
  • Discernible trending during the first-15 on Expiration can influence direction throughout the day.

The first-15’s inherent “noise” suggests padding triggers and timing windows by additional ticks and minutes.

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