Dynamic timing windows open when an inflection point is pierced, such as by triggering a buy or sell signal, or testing a reaction limit. The dynamic windows generally last for 3 minutes. The particular inflection point can serve only one purpose at a time:
- Buy / Sell signal
- Pullback / Bounce reaction limit
Upon piercing an inflection point, a minimum 3-tick probe identifies the 3-minute extreme. “”Sponsorship”” produces this probe. “”Reinforcements”” may arrive to push price beyond the probe’s minimum 3-tick 3-minute extreme. Further specific behavior can identify whether the sponsorship and its reinforcements are strong-handed or weak-handed, revealing whether the trending is reliable. The 3 ticks and 3 minutes (3×3) can be lengthened to 4 ticks and 4 minutes (4×4) during noisy periods such as the open, the cusp between timing windows, news reactions, etc. An extra 1-2 ticks can be allowed for noise in general. Aggressive traders may take action when the inflection point is first pierced, intending to exit if the 3×3 doesn’t qualify. Less aggressive traders may wait for the room for noise to be exceeded. Tactics can be chosen based on the trading environment trending, ranging, chopping, etc.
Fixed timing windows open at the same time, every day. Price action during the window can be predictive of a future window’s price action. Perhaps sellers pushed the market under a relevant price, but the price was recovered when the window had lapsed, suggesting that sellers are weak-handed. That’s a passive window. An active window’s price action would maintain the break beyond a relevant support or resistance, suggesting that its sponsorship is strong-handed. The most relevant and predictive intraday timing windows are (all times ET) :
- 9:30 to 9:45 … FIRST-15 MINUTES OF VOLATILITY
- 10:15 to 11:30 … A.M. BIAS WINDOW
- 1:20 to 2:30 … P.M. BIAS WINDOW
- 3:10 to 3:20 … PROXY WINDOW
- 3:37 to 3:52 … POSITION-SQUARING
These timing windows are highlighted on this chart:
The morning and afternoon bias environments are signaled at 10:15 and 1:20. Indecisive signals trigger a grace period through 10:30 and 1:30. The two grace periods are defined by the dashed purple lines which appear at the beginning of the yellow highlighted bias environments. The bias environment exits come within view 10-15 minutes prior, and then lapse for a half-hour, from 11:30 to noon and from 2:30 to 3:00. Price may have already probed the bias signal’s level before its 10:15 / 1:20 trigger times. Aggressive traders can enter early with the intent to exit or reverse in case the signal doesn’t qualify. Each window has specific characteristics associated with it, or specifically not associated with it. The windows are a reflection of the most widely-shared motivations among the current crowd. So, the morning’s bias environment is playing-out the direction that emerged from the open, or contained in a range because no direction emerged. And that opening 15 minutes is very volatile as different participants jockey for control of that direction. The afternoon bias environment may be motivated by “”unfinished business”” left outstanding from the open’s signal, or inhibited by post-close earnings announcements — or impacted by thinner volume ahead of a 3-day holiday weekend. No matter how “”fixed”” the timing window, its entry and exit may be a little fungible. Entering either bias environment could trigger a grace period through the bottom of that hour, for a clearer decisive trigger. And behavior that is otherwise inconsistent with the window can be excused if it starts developing when the window’s exit is within 10-15 minutes.
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